Football · Scotland Championship · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Ayr vs Raith

Team pages: Ayr · Raith

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Ayr1.05

Raith1.3

1X2

29% 29% 41%

Ayr Draw Raith

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ayr 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWDLWL

Raith 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWDLWD

Head-to-head

Ayr 2–4 Raith (6 last)

Raith2-0Ayr
Raith3-0Ayr
Ayr2-1Raith
Raith0-2Ayr
Ayr0-1Raith
Raith1-0Ayr

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ayr 1476 · Raith 1547

	Ayr	Draw	Raith
Our model	29%	30%	41%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Raith (rating 1476 vs 1547).
H2H favours Raith: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ayr	Raith
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	1.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.04
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.43 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.27

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +2’	3.00	3.20	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +27’	3.04	3.43	2.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayr 2–0–4 Raith

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Scotland Championship	Raith	2-0 HT 2-0	Ayr
27/03/26 Scotland Championship	Raith	3-0 HT 1-0	Ayr
31/01/26 Scotland Championship	Ayr	2-1 HT 1-0	Raith
11/10/25 Scotland Championship	Raith	0-2 HT 0-2	Ayr
09/08/25 Scotland Championship	Ayr	0-1 HT 0-1	Raith
05/04/25 Scotland Championship	Raith	1-0 HT 0-0	Ayr

Standings · Scotland Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Partick	14	8	4	2	18	7	28
2	Raith	14	7	4	3	20	9	25
3	Dunfermline	14	6	7	1	15	7	25
4	Stenhousemuir	14	7	2	5	16	16	23
5	Livingston	14	6	3	5	19	12	21
6	Inverness CT	14	5	5	4	18	17	20
7	Ayr	13	4	3	6	14	18	15
8	Arbroath	14	4	2	8	11	23	14
9	Morton	13	4	1	8	16	23	13
10	Queen's Park	14	2	1	11	8	23	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ayr	Raith
Arbroath	1-4 L	4-0 W
Queen's Park	3-2 W	2-0 W
Partick	0-1 L	0-0 D
Dunfermline	1-1 D	0-0 D
Livingston	2-1 W	0-2 L
Stenhousemuir	0-1 L	1-1 D
Inverness CT	1-3 L	0-2 L
Morton	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Raith (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ayr

DLLWLWDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Arbroath Scotland Championship	0-2	1-4	4	3	L
31/10	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/10	Partick Scotland Championship	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
10/10	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
03/10	Livingston Scotland Championship	2-1	2-1	0	7	W
25/09	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
18/09	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
12/09	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Partick Scotland Championship	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
29/08	Morton Scotland Championship	1-0	1-1	3	4	D

Raith

WWDLWWDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
31/10	Arbroath Scotland Championship	3-0	4-0	2	1	W
24/10	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
17/10	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
10/10	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
03/10	Morton Scotland Championship	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
25/09	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
19/09	Partick Scotland Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	Arbroath Scotland Championship	3-0	4-0	6	3	W
05/09	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ayr vs Raith?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Raith win (41%). Probabilities: Ayr 29%, draw 29%, Raith 41%.

How many goals are expected in Ayr vs Raith?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Ayr 1.05 · Raith 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ayr vs Raith?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.