Football · Scotland Premiership · 01/08, 18:30
Prediction: Aberdeen vs Hearts
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Aberdeen1.05
Hearts1.76
1X2
Aberdeen
Draw
Hearts
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Aberdeen
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Hearts
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aberdeen
1–3–2
Hearts
(6 last)
- Hearts1-0Aberdeen
- Aberdeen1-0Hearts
- Hearts2-0Aberdeen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aberdeen 1536 · Hearts 1526
| Aberdeen | Draw | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Hearts: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aberdeen | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.1 | 2.7 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aberdeen 1–3–2 Hearts
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Scotland Premiership | Hearts | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Aberdeen |
| 23/11/25 Scotland Premiership | Aberdeen | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Hearts |
| 04/08/25 Scotland Premiership | Hearts | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Aberdeen |
| 19/04/25 Scotland FA Cup | Hearts | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Aberdeen |
| 12/01/25 Scotland Premiership | Aberdeen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Hearts |
| 01/12/24 Scotland Premiership | Hearts | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Aberdeen |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hearts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aberdeen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Kelty Hearts Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 22/07 | Queen of South Scotland League Cup |
1-1 | 4-1 | 16 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Queen's Park Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | Brora Rangers FC Scotland League Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Twente Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 12/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 01/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Hearts
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | SK Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-4 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 17/07 | Rayo Vallecano Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | Livingston UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 13/05 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 2-1 | 11 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Motherwell Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aberdeen vs Hearts?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Hearts win (53%). Probabilities: Aberdeen 22%, draw 25%, Hearts 53%.
How many goals are expected in Aberdeen vs Hearts?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Aberdeen 1.05 · Hearts 1.76), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Aberdeen vs Hearts?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.