Football · Scotland Premiership · 02/08, 15:00
Prediction: St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
St Johnstone1.43
Kilmarnock1.15
1X2
St Johnstone
Draw
Kilmarnock
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
St Johnstone
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Kilmarnock
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Johnstone
2–4
Kilmarnock
(6 last)
- St Johnstone0-2Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock3-1St Johnstone
- St Johnstone1-0Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock0-3St Johnstone
- St Johnstone0-2Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock2-1St Johnstone
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · St Johnstone 1595 · Kilmarnock 1606
| St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Kilmarnock: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Johnstone | Kilmarnock | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.4 | 2.2 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.2 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 5 / 8.3 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Johnstone 2–0–4 Kilmarnock
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/25 Scotland Premiership | St Johnstone | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Kilmarnock |
| 15/02/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 3-1 HT 1-0 | St Johnstone |
| 23/11/24 Scotland Premiership | St Johnstone | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 11/08/24 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 0-3 HT 0-2 | St Johnstone |
| 13/04/24 Scotland Premiership | St Johnstone | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Kilmarnock |
| 23/12/23 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 2-1 HT 2-0 | St Johnstone |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dundee Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hearts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | St Mirren | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Johnstone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | East Fife Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 21/07 | Inverness CT Scotland League Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Morton Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 14/07 | Linlithgow Rose Scotland League Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | Cove Rangers UK Friendlies |
3-1 | 4-2 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Montrose Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/06 | Forfar UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 01/05 | Ayr Scotland Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Raith Scotland Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 21/04 | Dunfermline Scotland Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Peterhead Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Hamilton Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Elgin Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/07 | Raith Scotland League Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Linfield UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | Glentoran UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Johnstone win (43%). Probabilities: St Johnstone 43%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 29%.
How many goals are expected in St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
The model expects 2.57 goals (St Johnstone 1.43 · Kilmarnock 1.15), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.