Prediction: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd
Team pages: Kilmarnock · Dundee Utd
- Kilmarnock3-0Dundee Utd
- Dundee Utd1-1Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock1-1Dundee Utd
- Dundee Utd0-2Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock2-1Dundee Utd
- Kilmarnock1-0Dundee Utd
| Kilmarnock | Draw | Dundee Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kilmarnock (rating 1586 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Kilmarnock: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kilmarnock | Dundee Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.7 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.4 | 1.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kilmarnock 4–2–0 Dundee Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Dundee Utd |
| 21/02/26 Scotland Premiership | Dundee Utd | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 29/11/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dundee Utd |
| 27/09/25 Scotland Premiership | Dundee Utd | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Kilmarnock |
| 17/08/25 Scotland League Cup | Kilmarnock | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Dundee Utd |
| 01/02/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Dundee Utd |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Dundee | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Hearts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kilmarnock | Dundee Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Livingston | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Dundee | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| St Mirren | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Aberdeen | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Kilmarnock (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Dundee Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 09/08 | Hearts Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 31/07 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 04/04 | Rangers Scotland Premiership |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kilmarnock win (37%). Probabilities: Kilmarnock 37%, draw 27%, Dundee Utd 35%.
How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Kilmarnock 1.46 · Dundee Utd 1.42), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.