Football · Scotland Premiership · 02/09, 20:45

Prediction: Celtic vs Aberdeen

Team pages: Celtic · Aberdeen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Celtic2.4

Aberdeen0.76

1X2

74% 17% 10%

Celtic Draw Aberdeen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Celtic 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Aberdeen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Celtic 5–1–0 Aberdeen (6 last)

Aberdeen1-2Celtic
Celtic3-1Aberdeen
Aberdeen0-2Celtic
Aberdeen1-1Celtic
Aberdeen1-5Celtic
Celtic5-1Aberdeen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Celtic 1644 · Aberdeen 1534

	Celtic	Draw	Aberdeen
Our model	73%	18%	9%
Market	74%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celtic (rating 1644 vs 1534).
H2H favours Celtic: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Celtic	Aberdeen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.4	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:39 +4’	1.25	6.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Celtic 5–1–0 Aberdeen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-2 HT 1-1	Celtic
21/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	3-1 HT 1-0	Aberdeen
10/08/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	0-2 HT 0-1	Celtic
24/05/25 Scotland FA Cup	Aberdeen	1-1 HT 0-1	Celtic
14/05/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-5 HT 1-2	Celtic
25/02/25 Scotland Premiership	Celtic	5-1 HT 3-0	Aberdeen

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Dundee	3	2	0	1	4	1	6
3	St Mirren	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	Motherwell	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Hearts	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
6	St Johnstone	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
7	Hibernian	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Aberdeen	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	Rangers	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Falkirk	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
11	Dundee Utd	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
12	Kilmarnock	2	0	0	2	4	9	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Celtic	Aberdeen
Kilmarnock	5-1 W	1-0 W
Dundee	1-0 W	0-2 L
Hearts	3-1 W	2-1 W
Rangers	3-1 W	1-4 L
Hibernian	2-1 W	2-0 W
St Mirren	1-0 W	0-2 L
Dundee Utd	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Celtic (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Celtic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	5-1	7	1	W
03/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
16/05	Hearts Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	9	9	W
13/05	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-2	3	3	W
10/05	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	1	8	W
03/05	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-1	2-1	13	7	W
25/04	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	2-0	3-1	9	5	W
11/04	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
05/04	Dundee Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/03	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-2	6	4	L

Aberdeen

LLWWDWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-3	2	0	L
12/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
09/05	Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
01/05	Livingston Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
25/04	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
11/04	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
04/04	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
21/03	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-4	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Celtic vs Aberdeen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Celtic win (74%). Probabilities: Celtic 74%, draw 17%, Aberdeen 10%.

How many goals are expected in Celtic vs Aberdeen?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Celtic 2.4 · Aberdeen 0.76), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Celtic vs Aberdeen?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.