Football · Scotland Premiership · 02/09, 20:45
Prediction: Kilmarnock vs St Mirren
Team pages: Kilmarnock · St Mirren
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Kilmarnock1.55
St Mirren1.45
1X2
Kilmarnock
Draw
St Mirren
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Kilmarnock
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
St Mirren
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kilmarnock
3–2–1
St Mirren
(6 last)
- St Mirren0-3Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock4-3St Mirren
- St Mirren0-0Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock2-0St Mirren
- Kilmarnock2-2St Mirren
- St Mirren5-1Kilmarnock
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kilmarnock 1590 · St Mirren 1542
| Kilmarnock | Draw | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kilmarnock (rating 1590 vs 1542).
- H2H favours Kilmarnock: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kilmarnock | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.7 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.4 | 3.1 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kilmarnock 3–2–1 St Mirren
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Kilmarnock |
| 11/02/26 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 4-3 HT 2-1 | St Mirren |
| 27/12/25 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Kilmarnock |
| 04/10/25 Scotland Premiership | Kilmarnock | 2-0 HT 2-0 | St Mirren |
| 19/09/25 Scotland League Cup | Kilmarnock | 2-2 HT 1-1 | St Mirren |
| 29/03/25 Scotland Premiership | St Mirren | 5-1 HT 2-0 | Kilmarnock |
Standings · Scotland Premiership
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Dundee | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | St Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Hearts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | St Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Hibernian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 9 | Rangers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Dundee Utd | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kilmarnock | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 1-5 L | 0-1 L |
| St Johnstone | 3-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Livingston | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Dundee | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Dundee Utd | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Aberdeen | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kilmarnock
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
0-3 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | St Mirren Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Hibernian Scotland Premiership |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
St Mirren
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | St Johnstone Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Dundee Utd Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 12/05 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Dundee Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Livingston Scotland Premiership |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Celtic Scotland Premiership |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Aberdeen Scotland Premiership |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Falkirk Scotland Premiership |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kilmarnock win (39%). Probabilities: Kilmarnock 39%, draw 27%, St Mirren 34%.
How many goals are expected in Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?
The model expects 3 goals (Kilmarnock 1.55 · St Mirren 1.45), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Kilmarnock vs St Mirren?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.