Football · Scotland Premiership · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen

Team pages: Dundee Utd · Aberdeen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Dundee Utd1.39

Aberdeen1.09

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Dundee Utd Draw Aberdeen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Dundee Utd 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLDWWD

Aberdeen 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWDLW

Head-to-head

Dundee Utd 2–3–1 Aberdeen (6 last)

Aberdeen2-0Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd0-0Aberdeen
Aberdeen1-1Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd2-0Aberdeen
Dundee Utd2-1Aberdeen
Aberdeen2-2Dundee Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dundee Utd 1488 · Aberdeen 1523

	Dundee Utd	Draw	Aberdeen
Our model	42%	29%	28%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dundee Utd: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dundee Utd	Aberdeen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.9	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.19
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.29 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +7’	2.10	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:16 +432’	2.19	3.44	3.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dundee Utd 2–3–1 Aberdeen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	2-0 HT 1-0	Dundee Utd
24/02/26 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Aberdeen
27/12/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	1-1 HT 0-1	Dundee Utd
23/09/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	2-0 HT 1-0	Aberdeen
17/05/25 Scotland Premiership	Dundee Utd	2-1 HT 0-1	Aberdeen
02/03/25 Scotland Premiership	Aberdeen	2-2 HT 0-2	Dundee Utd

Standings · Scotland Premiership

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Celtic	8	7	0	1	16	4	21
2	Rangers	9	6	2	1	13	7	20
3	Hearts	8	5	1	2	19	8	16
4	Dundee	9	4	2	3	13	10	14
5	St Johnstone	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
6	Dundee Utd	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
7	Aberdeen	9	3	2	4	10	10	11
8	St Mirren	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
9	Falkirk	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
10	Motherwell	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
11	Kilmarnock	9	2	2	5	10	20	8
12	Hibernian	9	2	1	6	9	14	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dundee Utd	Aberdeen
St Johnstone	1-1 D	0-1 L
Hibernian	1-0 W	1-1 D
St Mirren	3-0 W	3-1 W
Motherwell	0-3 L	4-0 W
Kilmarnock	4-0 W	0-0 D
Dundee	0-2 L	0-2 L
Hearts	0-4 L	2-1 W
Rangers	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Dundee Utd (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dundee Utd

DDLLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
10/10	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
19/09	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	3-0	3-0	7	4	W
05/09	Falkirk Scotland Premiership	0-1	1-1	14	5	D
02/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
29/08	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	3-0	4-0	5	6	W
22/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
09/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
31/07	Rangers Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
17/05	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	2	2	D

Aberdeen

LWLLLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	St Mirren Scotland Premiership	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
11/10	St Johnstone Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-1	13	0	L
19/09	Hibernian Scotland Premiership	1-0	1-1	9	4	D
15/09	Motherwell Scotland Premiership	1-0	4-0	2	5	W
05/09	Kilmarnock Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
02/09	Celtic Scotland Premiership	0-3	0-3	5	2	L
30/08	Rangers Scotland Premiership	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
08/08	Dundee Scotland Premiership	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/08	Hearts Scotland Premiership	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/05	Dundee Scotland Premiership	2-1	2-3	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dundee Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Dundee Utd 43%, draw 28%, Aberdeen 29%.

How many goals are expected in Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Dundee Utd 1.39 · Aberdeen 1.09), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.