Football · Scotland Championship · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Arbroath vs Ayr

Team pages: Arbroath · Ayr

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Arbroath0.98

Ayr1.21

1X2

29% 30% 41%

Arbroath Draw Ayr

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Arbroath 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLLLL

Ayr 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLWDLW

Head-to-head

Arbroath 0–3–3 Ayr (6 last)

Ayr2-0Arbroath
Ayr1-0Arbroath
Arbroath1-1Ayr
Ayr1-1Arbroath
Arbroath1-1Ayr
Ayr4-0Arbroath

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arbroath 1420 · Ayr 1492

	Arbroath	Draw	Ayr
Our model	28%	32%	40%
Market	30%	28%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ayr (rating 1420 vs 1492).
H2H favours Ayr: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arbroath	Ayr
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.9	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.6	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.20

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.52 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +6’	3.00	3.20	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:24 +64’	2.92	3.11	2.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arbroath 0–3–3 Ayr

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Scotland Championship	Ayr	2-0 HT 1-0	Arbroath
11/04/26 Scotland Championship	Ayr	1-0 HT 0-0	Arbroath
03/03/26 Scotland Championship	Arbroath	1-1 HT 0-0	Ayr
15/11/25 Scotland Championship	Ayr	1-1 HT 0-1	Arbroath
01/08/25 Scotland Championship	Arbroath	1-1 HT 0-1	Ayr
19/07/25 Scotland League Cup	Ayr	4-0 HT 1-0	Arbroath

Standings · Scotland Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Partick	13	7	4	2	17	7	25
2	Raith	13	7	3	3	20	9	24
3	Dunfermline	13	6	6	1	15	7	24
4	Stenhousemuir	13	7	2	4	13	12	23
5	Livingston	13	6	2	5	18	11	20
6	Inverness CT	13	5	4	4	17	16	19
7	Ayr	12	4	3	5	13	14	15
8	Arbroath	13	3	2	8	7	22	11
9	Morton	12	3	1	8	12	20	10
10	Queen's Park	13	2	1	10	8	22	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arbroath	Ayr
Raith	0-4 L	0-2 L
Livingston	0-1 L	2-1 W
Inverness CT	0-2 L	1-3 L
Morton	1-2 L	1-1 D
Partick	0-3 L	0-1 L
Queen's Park	2-1 W	3-2 W
Stenhousemuir	0-1 L	0-1 L
Dunfermline	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ayr (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arbroath

WDLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Raith Scotland Championship	0-3	0-4	6	1	L
24/10	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-0	0-1	8	6	L
17/10	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	0-2	0-2	2	1	L
10/10	Morton Scotland Championship	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
03/10	Partick Scotland Championship	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
25/09	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
19/09	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/09	Raith Scotland Championship	0-3	0-4	1	3	L
05/09	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
29/08	Livingston Scotland Championship	0-0	1-0	2	6	W

Ayr

LDLLWLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	1-0	3-2	6	5	W
16/10	Partick Scotland Championship	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
10/10	Dunfermline Scotland Championship	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
03/10	Livingston Scotland Championship	2-1	2-1	0	7	W
25/09	Stenhousemuir Scotland Championship	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
18/09	Queen's Park Scotland Championship	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
12/09	Inverness CT Scotland Championship	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Partick Scotland Championship	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
29/08	Morton Scotland Championship	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Raith Scotland Championship	0-2	0-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arbroath vs Ayr?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ayr win (41%). Probabilities: Arbroath 29%, draw 30%, Ayr 41%.

How many goals are expected in Arbroath vs Ayr?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Arbroath 0.98 · Ayr 1.21), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arbroath vs Ayr?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.