Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 11:00

Prediction: EIF Academy vs MPS

Team pages: EIF Academy · MPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.34Total

EIF Academy3.06

MPS1.28

1X2

73% 15% 13%

EIF Academy Draw MPS

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

EIF Academy 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDDWWW

MPS 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWDLD

Head-to-head

EIF Academy 1–0 MPS (1 last)

MPS0-4EIF Academy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EIF Academy 1605 · MPS 1429

	EIF Academy	Draw	MPS
Our model	72%	15%	12%
Market	73%	14%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.34 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EIF Academy (rating 1605 vs 1429).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EIF Academy	MPS
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	1.4 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/11/33%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.25

X6.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +3’	1.25	6.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EIF Academy 1–0–0 MPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	MPS	0-4 HT 0-2	EIF Academy

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	21	15	4	2	72	29	49
2	ESPA	21	13	3	5	49	23	42
3	LePa	21	11	3	7	42	37	36
4	Poxyt	21	10	3	8	45	43	33
5	Gilla FC	21	9	3	9	52	42	30
6	LoPa	21	9	3	9	34	38	30
7	NuPS	21	7	6	8	31	31	27
8	GrIFK Reservi	21	8	2	11	36	47	26
9	EPS Reservi	21	6	5	10	33	53	23
10	PPJ/Ruoholahti	21	6	4	11	31	50	22
11	HooGee	21	6	2	13	38	54	20
12	MPS	21	4	6	11	24	40	18

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EIF Academy	MPS
HooGee	3-1 W	3-3 D
Gilla FC	4-2 W	2-3 L
Poxyt	4-2 W	2-2 D
LePa	1-1 D	0-2 L
ESPA	1-1 D	2-2 D
LoPa	2-2 D	1-2 L
EPS Reservi	3-0 W	1-3 L
GrIFK Reservi	2-1 W	0-3 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	4-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: EIF Academy (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EIF Academy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	2	2	W
17/09	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-1	4-2	5	5	W
11/09	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-2	4-2	1	1	W
03/09	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
28/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
20/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-2	15	0	D
14/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/08	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	7	1	W
30/07	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	5	8	W
27/07	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	2-0	4-0	4	1	W

MPS

LLLLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
18/09	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
10/09	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
04/09	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	1	2	W
26/08	LePa Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
21/08	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
12/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
06/08	GrIFK Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-3	2-3	8	7	L
01/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-2	0-4	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EIF Academy vs MPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EIF Academy win (73%). Probabilities: EIF Academy 73%, draw 15%, MPS 13%.

How many goals are expected in EIF Academy vs MPS?

The model expects 4.34 goals (EIF Academy 3.06 · MPS 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in EIF Academy vs MPS?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.