Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: FC Lasten vs NoPS

Team pages: FC Lasten · NoPS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

FC Lasten2.76

NoPS1.45

1X2

64% 18% 18%

FC Lasten Draw NoPS

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lasten 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWW

NoPS 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

FC Lasten 3–0 NoPS (3 last)

NoPS0-1FC Lasten
FC Lasten4-0NoPS
NoPS0-2FC Lasten

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lasten 1627 · NoPS 1567

	FC Lasten	Draw	NoPS
Our model	64%	18%	18%
Market	64%	18%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Lasten (rating 1627 vs 1567).
H2H favours FC Lasten: 3-0-0.
High corners: 15.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lasten	NoPS
Goals for / against (FT)	4.1 / 0.9	4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	1.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 9.1	3.3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.38

X5.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.88

Under 4.251.93

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +20’	1.38	5.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lasten 3–0–0 NoPS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Lasten
31/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	FC Lasten	4-0 HT 3-0	NoPS
24/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	NoPS	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Lasten

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lasten	21	20	1	0	89	18	61
2	TPV II	22	17	1	4	67	31	52
3	Tampere Utd II	22	15	3	4	61	22	48
4	NoPS	21	14	2	5	69	29	44
5	TP-T	20	9	2	9	47	38	29
6	FC Haka Juniors	21	9	1	11	45	58	28
7	FC LeKi	20	8	2	10	44	43	26
8	Ylojarvi United	21	7	2	12	37	51	23
9	Saaksjærven Loiske	21	7	2	12	30	48	23
10	ACE	21	5	1	15	40	58	16
11	Fish United	21	4	2	15	27	69	14
12	TP-49	21	1	1	19	22	113	4

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lasten	NoPS
FC LeKi	3-1 W	3-2 W
TP-49	9-1 W	4-1 W
Fish United	5-1 W	8-0 W
ACE	6-1 W	2-0 W
Ylojarvi United	5-1 W	4-1 W
Saaksjærven Loiske	4-1 W	2-0 W
FC Haka Juniors	2-1 W	7-0 W
TP-T	3-0 W	5-1 W
TPV II	3-1 W	4-6 L
Tampere Utd II	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	9 W 1 D 0 L	8 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lasten (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lasten

DWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
17/09	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	9-1	24	2	W
10/09	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
03/09	ACE Finland Kolmonen	3-1	6-1	9	2	W
29/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
20/08	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-1	9	4	W
11/08	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
06/08	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
30/07	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-1	9	7	W
25/07	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	8	3	D

NoPS

WWWWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	TPV II Finland Kolmonen	1-4	4-6	7	1	L
19/09	Tampere Utd II Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
10/09	TP-T Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-1	8	4	W
04/09	FC LeKi Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-2	7	1	W
29/08	TP-49 Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
20/08	Fish United Finland Kolmonen	3-0	8-0	7	3	W
14/08	ACE Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/08	Ylojarvi United Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/07	Saaksjærven Loiske Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
24/07	FC Haka Juniors Finland Kolmonen	3-0	7-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lasten vs NoPS?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lasten win (64%). Probabilities: FC Lasten 64%, draw 18%, NoPS 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lasten vs NoPS?

The model expects 4.22 goals (FC Lasten 2.76 · NoPS 1.45), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lasten vs NoPS?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.