Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: EuPa vs PIF Parainen

Team pages: EuPa · PIF Parainen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

EuPa1.82

PIF Parainen1.44

1X2

46% 23% 30%

EuPa Draw PIF Parainen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

EuPa 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDWDWWWW

PIF Parainen 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDLWLW

Head-to-head

EuPa 1–3–0 PIF Parainen (4 last)

PIF Parainen1-2EuPa
EuPa4-4PIF Parainen
PIF Parainen0-0EuPa
PIF Parainen4-4EuPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · EuPa 1596 · PIF Parainen 1506

	EuPa	Draw	PIF Parainen
Our model	46%	25%	30%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EuPa (rating 1596 vs 1506).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	EuPa	PIF Parainen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.6	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/25/0%	67/0/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.5	3.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +5’	1.91	4.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · EuPa 1–3–0 PIF Parainen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	PIF Parainen	1-2 HT 0-0	EuPa
20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	EuPa	4-4	PIF Parainen
12/06/25 Finland Kolmonen	PIF Parainen	0-0 HT 0-0	EuPa
17/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	PIF Parainen	4-4 HT 1-1	EuPa

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EuPa	21	15	4	2	46	14	49
2	IFK Mariehamn II	21	13	3	5	49	25	42
3	PIF Parainen	20	11	4	5	37	24	37
4	Peimari United	21	9	9	3	37	24	36
5	SAPA/2	21	9	4	8	33	33	31
6	LTU	21	9	3	9	28	27	30
7	MaPS	21	9	2	10	36	35	29
8	KaaPo	21	8	1	12	35	44	25
9	VG-62	20	8	0	12	28	32	24
10	PiPS	21	6	3	12	23	42	21
11	JyTy	21	5	4	12	23	47	19
12	ACF	21	2	5	14	18	46	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	EuPa	PIF Parainen
IFK Mariehamn II	3-1 W	1-1 D
MaPS	4-0 W	2-1 W
VG-62	3-2 W	1-0 W
SAPA/2	1-0 W	1-4 L
Peimari United	0-0 D	0-3 L
ACF	2-0 W	4-2 W
JyTy	1-1 D	3-1 W
PiPS	4-1 W	0-1 L
KaaPo	4-1 W	4-2 W
LTU	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	7 W 3 D 0 L	5 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: EuPa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

EuPa

DWWDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
12/09	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	–	3-2	–	–	W
01/09	SAPA/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
29/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
21/08	ACF Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
01/08	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
25/07	LTU Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-0	10	1	D

PIF Parainen

WWLWDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	MaPS Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-1	6	6	W
15/09	SAPA/2 Finland Kolmonen	1-2	1-4	3	4	L
12/09	ACF Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W
04/09	PiPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	LTU Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
22/08	IFK Mariehamn II Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	VG-62 Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
08/08	Peimari United Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
01/08	JyTy Finland Kolmonen	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
22/07	KaaPo Finland Kolmonen	1-2	4-2	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in EuPa vs PIF Parainen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a EuPa win (46%). Probabilities: EuPa 46%, draw 23%, PIF Parainen 30%.

How many goals are expected in EuPa vs PIF Parainen?

The model expects 3.27 goals (EuPa 1.82 · PIF Parainen 1.44), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in EuPa vs PIF Parainen?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.