Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: KePS vs Villan Pojat

Team pages: KePS · Villan Pojat

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

KePS1.49

Villan Pojat1.85

1X2

31% 22% 46%

KePS Draw Villan Pojat

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

KePS 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDWWD

Villan Pojat 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWDWD

Head-to-head

KePS 1–2–1 Villan Pojat (4 last)

Villan Pojat2-1KePS
Villan Pojat1-1KePS
KePS2-1Villan Pojat
Villan Pojat2-2KePS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KePS 1551 · Villan Pojat 1587

	KePS	Draw	Villan Pojat
Our model	30%	24%	45%
Market	32%	21%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KePS	Villan Pojat
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	2.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4	1.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	6.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X4.33

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +4’	2.80	4.33	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KePS 1–2–1 Villan Pojat

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	Villan Pojat	2-1 HT 0-0	KePS
20/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	Villan Pojat	1-1	KePS
05/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	KePS	2-1 HT 0-0	Villan Pojat
20/07/24 Finland Kolmonen	Villan Pojat	2-2 HT 1-1	KePS

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kajha	17	11	2	4	71	19	35
2	Villan Pojat	17	9	6	2	39	21	33
3	KePS	17	9	4	4	42	20	31
4	KaPa Kajaani	17	9	3	5	61	22	30
5	HauPa	17	8	5	4	52	26	29
6	RoPo	16	7	2	7	32	37	23
7	Ajax Sarkkiranta	16	6	2	8	34	40	20
8	Hercules-J	17	5	3	9	25	46	18
9	Santa Claus	17	2	6	9	22	55	12
10	PonPa	17	0	3	14	13	105	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KePS	Villan Pojat
Kajha	1-1 D	1-1 D
Santa Claus	3-0 W	3-0 W
Ajax Sarkkiranta	6-0 W	2-0 W
HauPa	1-1 D	3-3 D
RoPo	1-0 W	6-2 W
KaPa Kajaani	0-3 L	0-0 D
PonPa	2-0 W	4-0 W
Hercules-J	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Villan Pojat (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KePS

WLWWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/09	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen	–	6-0	–	–	W
05/09	HauPa Finland Kolmonen	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
08/08	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/07	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
11/07	Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	6	6	L
05/07	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-3	3	4	W

Villan Pojat

WWWDWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	HauPa Finland Kolmonen	1-1	3-3	3	6	D
19/09	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
12/09	KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	4-0	–	–	W
29/08	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
01/08	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
18/07	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/07	KePS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KePS vs Villan Pojat?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Villan Pojat win (46%). Probabilities: KePS 31%, draw 22%, Villan Pojat 46%.

How many goals are expected in KePS vs Villan Pojat?

The model expects 3.33 goals (KePS 1.49 · Villan Pojat 1.85), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in KePS vs Villan Pojat?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.