Football · Finland Kolmonen · 03/10, 13:00

Prediction: Ajax Sarkkiranta vs KaPa Kajaani

Team pages: Ajax Sarkkiranta · KaPa Kajaani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.25Total

Ajax Sarkkiranta1.27

KaPa Kajaani2.98

1X2

13% 15% 72%

Ajax Sarkkiranta Draw KaPa Kajaani

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax Sarkkiranta 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLLWD

KaPa Kajaani 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLDWW

Head-to-head

Ajax Sarkkiranta 0–3 KaPa Kajaani (3 last)

KaPa Kajaani2-1Ajax Sarkkiranta
KaPa Kajaani5-0Ajax Sarkkiranta
Ajax Sarkkiranta0-3KaPa Kajaani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax Sarkkiranta 1462 · KaPa Kajaani 1578

	Ajax Sarkkiranta	Draw	KaPa Kajaani
Our model	13%	16%	71%
Market	14%	14%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 4.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KaPa Kajaani (rating 1462 vs 1578).
H2H favours KaPa Kajaani: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax Sarkkiranta	KaPa Kajaani
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 3	4.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	0.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2	3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.50

X6.50

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.82

2 (-2)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 1.85 · xG: 5.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +4’	6.50	6.50	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax Sarkkiranta 0–0–3 KaPa Kajaani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	KaPa Kajaani	2-1 HT 1-0	Ajax Sarkkiranta
27/09/25 Finland Kolmonen	KaPa Kajaani	5-0	Ajax Sarkkiranta
12/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	Ajax Sarkkiranta	0-3 HT 0-1	KaPa Kajaani

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, North Group

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kajha	17	11	2	4	71	19	35
2	Villan Pojat	17	9	6	2	39	21	33
3	KePS	17	9	4	4	42	20	31
4	KaPa Kajaani	17	9	3	5	61	22	30
5	HauPa	17	8	5	4	52	26	29
6	RoPo	16	7	2	7	32	37	23
7	Ajax Sarkkiranta	16	6	2	8	34	40	20
8	Hercules-J	17	5	3	9	25	46	18
9	Santa Claus	17	2	6	9	22	55	12
10	PonPa	17	0	3	14	13	105	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax Sarkkiranta	KaPa Kajaani
Santa Claus	5-5 D	3-3 D
PonPa	7-0 W	11-2 W
KePS	0-6 L	3-0 W
Hercules-J	1-2 L	6-1 W
HauPa	3-7 L	2-1 W
Villan Pojat	0-2 L	0-0 D
Kajha	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KaPa Kajaani (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax Sarkkiranta

WLLLWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	5-5	–	–	D
17/09	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	7-0	–	–	W
12/09	KePS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-6	–	–	L
03/09	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	HauPa Finland Kolmonen	–	3-7	–	–	L
21/08	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen	–	0-2	–	–	L
18/07	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/07	KaPa Kajaani Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
27/06	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	4-2	–	–	W

KaPa Kajaani

WWWWWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	11-2	–	–	W
19/09	Hercules-J Finland Kolmonen	–	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Villan Pojat Finland Kolmonen	–	0-0	–	–	D
02/09	Kajha Finland Kolmonen	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Santa Claus Finland Kolmonen	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/08	KePS Finland Kolmonen	–	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	HauPa Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/07	RoPo Finland Kolmonen	–	5-1	–	–	W
12/07	Ajax Sarkkiranta Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
05/07	PonPa Finland Kolmonen	–	12-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax Sarkkiranta vs KaPa Kajaani?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KaPa Kajaani win (72%). Probabilities: Ajax Sarkkiranta 13%, draw 15%, KaPa Kajaani 72%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax Sarkkiranta vs KaPa Kajaani?

The model expects 4.25 goals (Ajax Sarkkiranta 1.27 · KaPa Kajaani 2.98), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax Sarkkiranta vs KaPa Kajaani?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.