Football · Japan J-League · 29/08, 11:00

Prediction: Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Team pages: Gamba Osaka · Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Gamba Osaka1.43

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.55

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Gamba Osaka Draw Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gamba Osaka 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLWWDL

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Gamba Osaka 2–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6 last)

Gamba Osaka0-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0Gamba Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-0Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka0-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka3-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-2Gamba Osaka

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1534 vs 1607).
H2H favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gamba Osaka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.84

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	4.88 → 4.88	Pinn 4.88
X	4.30 → 4.30	Pinn 4.30
2	1.62 → 1.62	Pinn 1.62

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +3’	4.88	4.30	1.62

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gamba Osaka 2–0–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	0-1 HT 0-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
14/03/26 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-0 HT 1-0	Gamba Osaka
16/08/25 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-0 HT 1-0	Gamba Osaka
11/05/25 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	0-1 HT 0-1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
08/12/24 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	3-1 HT 1-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
11/09/24 Japan FA Cup	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1-2 HT 1-1	Gamba Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	3	3	0	0	9	4	9
2	Kashima Antlers	3	3	0	0	9	6	9
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
4	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
5	Yokohama F-Marinos	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
6	Cerezo Osaka	3	2	0	1	3	4	6
7	Mito Hollyhock	3	1	1	1	5	4	4
8	Vissel Kobe	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
9	Fagiano Okayama	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
10	Gamba Osaka	3	1	1	1	6	7	4
11	FC Tokyo	3	1	1	1	5	7	4
12	Avispa Fukuoka	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	3	0	3	0	4	4	3
13	Nagoya Grampus	3	1	0	2	4	4	3
15	Shimizu S-Pulse	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
16	V-Varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
17	Tokyo Verdy	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
18	Kyoto Sanga FC	3	0	1	2	4	7	1
19	Urawa Red Diamonds	2	0	0	2	4	8	0
20	JEF Utd Chiba	3	0	0	3	0	9	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gamba Osaka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Nagoya Grampus	1-3 L	4-2 W
Urawa Red Diamonds	4-3 W	4-1 W
Vissel Kobe	5-0 W	1-1 D
Kyoto Sanga FC	1-1 D	4-0 W
Avispa Fukuoka	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gamba Osaka

LDDWLLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
07/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-3	5	5	W
24/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
10/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
06/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
02/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	2-0	5-0	3	1	W
29/04	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
25/04	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
22/04	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-2	1-2	5	5	L

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

WDLDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-1	11	3	W
08/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	2	1	W
17/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	10	3	W
10/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
02/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
29/04	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
25/04	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-1	2-1	11	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (39%). Probabilities: Gamba Osaka 34%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 39%.

How many goals are expected in Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Gamba Osaka 1.43 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.55), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.