Prediction: Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Team pages: Fagiano Okayama · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Fagiano Okayama1-0Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima1-1Fagiano Okayama
- Fagiano Okayama0-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima0-1Fagiano Okayama
| Fagiano Okayama | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 28% | 49% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1505 vs 1613).
- H2H favours Fagiano Okayama: 2-1-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fagiano Okayama | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 2.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.6 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fagiano Okayama 2–1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Japan J-League | Fagiano Okayama | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| 14/02/26 Japan J-League | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Fagiano Okayama |
| 05/07/25 Japan J-League | Fagiano Okayama | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| 12/04/25 Japan J-League | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Fagiano Okayama |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Kashima Antlers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | FC Tokyo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Kawasaki Frontale | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Gamba Osaka | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 14 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| 15 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 16 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 20 | JEF Utd Chiba | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Fagiano Okayama | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|
| JEF Utd Chiba | 2-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Vissel Kobe | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fagiano Okayama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/05 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (50%). Probabilities: Fagiano Okayama 23%, draw 27%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 50%.
How many goals are expected in Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model expects 2.47 goals (Fagiano Okayama 0.96 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.52), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.