Football · Japan J-League · 06/09, 12:00

Prediction: Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F-Marinos

Team pages: Kashiwa Reysol · Yokohama F-Marinos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Kashiwa Reysol1.68

Yokohama F-Marinos0.87

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Kashiwa Reysol Draw Yokohama F-Marinos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Kashiwa Reysol 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWL

Yokohama F-Marinos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Kashiwa Reysol 6–0 Yokohama F-Marinos (6 last)

Yokohama F-Marinos0-1Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol3-0Yokohama F-Marinos
Kashiwa Reysol1-0Yokohama F-Marinos
Kashiwa Reysol1-0Yokohama F-Marinos
Yokohama F-Marinos1-4Kashiwa Reysol
Yokohama F-Marinos0-2Kashiwa Reysol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kashiwa Reysol 1572 · Yokohama F-Marinos 1500

	Kashiwa Reysol	Draw	Yokohama F-Marinos
Our model	55%	26%	18%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kashiwa Reysol (rating 1572 vs 1500).
H2H favours Kashiwa Reysol: 6-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kashiwa Reysol	Yokohama F-Marinos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.9	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.4 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.68
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.95 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:34 +10’	1.67	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:56	1.68	3.95	4.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kashiwa Reysol 6–0–0 Yokohama F-Marinos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Japan J-League	Yokohama F-Marinos	0-1 HT 0-1	Kashiwa Reysol
05/04/26 Japan J-League	Kashiwa Reysol	3-0 HT 1-0	Yokohama F-Marinos
04/10/25 Japan J-League	Kashiwa Reysol	1-0 HT 1-0	Yokohama F-Marinos
07/09/25 Japan J-League Cup	Kashiwa Reysol	1-0 HT 0-0	Yokohama F-Marinos
03/09/25 Japan J-League Cup	Yokohama F-Marinos	1-4 HT 0-1	Kashiwa Reysol
14/05/25 Japan J-League	Yokohama F-Marinos	0-2 HT 0-0	Kashiwa Reysol

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	5	4	1	0	15	4	13
2	Kashiwa Reysol	5	4	0	1	10	6	12
3	Kashima Antlers	5	4	0	1	13	10	12
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	5	3	2	0	11	2	11
5	Vissel Kobe	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Cerezo Osaka	5	3	0	2	5	5	9
7	Mito Hollyhock	5	2	2	1	10	7	8
8	FC Tokyo	5	2	2	1	9	8	8
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
10	Fagiano Okayama	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
11	Kawasaki Frontale	5	1	3	1	9	8	6
12	Gamba Osaka	5	1	3	1	8	9	6
13	Nagoya Grampus	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
14	Urawa Red Diamonds	5	2	0	3	11	15	6
15	Kyoto Sanga FC	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	5	1	1	3	2	4	4
17	V-Varen Nagasaki	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
18	Avispa Fukuoka	5	1	0	4	8	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	5	0	2	3	2	8	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kashiwa Reysol	Yokohama F-Marinos
Shimizu S-Pulse	1-0 W	1-0 W
Tokyo Verdy	3-1 W	6-0 W
Mito Hollyhock	2-1 W	1-1 D
Urawa Red Diamonds	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kashiwa Reysol

LLWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	9	1	L
29/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
21/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-0	4-2	8	1	W
14/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
08/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	2-0	2-1	1	1	W
23/05	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	6	3	W
16/05	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
10/05	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
06/05	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
03/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	10	1	L

Yokohama F-Marinos

DLDLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
22/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
15/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
07/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	2-1	3-4	0	1	L
24/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	3-0	6-0	4	2	W
16/05	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
10/05	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	9	0	D
06/05	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
02/05	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F-Marinos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kashiwa Reysol win (56%). Probabilities: Kashiwa Reysol 56%, draw 26%, Yokohama F-Marinos 18%.

How many goals are expected in Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F-Marinos?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Kashiwa Reysol 1.68 · Yokohama F-Marinos 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kashiwa Reysol vs Yokohama F-Marinos?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.