Football · Japan J-League · 06/09, 12:00

Prediction: Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy

Team pages: Cerezo Osaka · Tokyo Verdy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Cerezo Osaka1.75

Tokyo Verdy1.03

1X2

53% 26% 21%

Cerezo Osaka Draw Tokyo Verdy

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Cerezo Osaka 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLWLW

Tokyo Verdy 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cerezo Osaka 4–1–1 Tokyo Verdy (6 last)

Cerezo Osaka2-1Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy1-0Cerezo Osaka
Tokyo Verdy1-1Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka2-1Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy1-2Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka1-0Tokyo Verdy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerezo Osaka 1576 · Tokyo Verdy 1445

	Cerezo Osaka	Draw	Tokyo Verdy
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	53%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerezo Osaka (rating 1576 vs 1445).
H2H favours Cerezo Osaka: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerezo Osaka	Tokyo Verdy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	0.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.9	1.4 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.79
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.73 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:34 +9’	1.75	3.40	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:56	1.79	3.73	4.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerezo Osaka 4–1–1 Tokyo Verdy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/25 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	2-1 HT 1-1	Tokyo Verdy
25/04/25 Japan J-League	Tokyo Verdy	1-0 HT 1-0	Cerezo Osaka
06/07/24 Japan J-League	Tokyo Verdy	1-1 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka
09/03/24 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	2-1 HT 1-0	Tokyo Verdy
12/11/16 Japan J2-League	Tokyo Verdy	1-2 HT 0-1	Cerezo Osaka
26/06/16 Japan J2-League	Cerezo Osaka	1-0 HT 0-0	Tokyo Verdy

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	5	4	1	0	15	4	13
2	Kashiwa Reysol	5	4	0	1	10	6	12
3	Kashima Antlers	5	4	0	1	13	10	12
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	5	3	2	0	11	2	11
5	Vissel Kobe	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Cerezo Osaka	5	3	0	2	5	5	9
7	Mito Hollyhock	5	2	2	1	10	7	8
8	FC Tokyo	5	2	2	1	9	8	8
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
10	Fagiano Okayama	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
11	Kawasaki Frontale	5	1	3	1	9	8	6
12	Gamba Osaka	5	1	3	1	8	9	6
13	Nagoya Grampus	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
14	Urawa Red Diamonds	5	2	0	3	11	15	6
15	Kyoto Sanga FC	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	5	1	1	3	2	4	4
17	V-Varen Nagasaki	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
18	Avispa Fukuoka	5	1	0	4	8	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	5	0	2	3	2	8	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerezo Osaka	Tokyo Verdy
Kashiwa Reysol	2-0 W	1-3 L
Vissel Kobe	0-1 L	0-2 L
Fagiano Okayama	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerezo Osaka

DDWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
29/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
22/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
15/08	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
08/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	2-1	2-1	5	1	W
24/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
17/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	3-1	6-1	4	1	W
09/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	8	3	W
06/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
03/05	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	7	2	D

Tokyo Verdy

LLDWLDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
29/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
22/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
14/08	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	3	L
09/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
24/05	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-3	0-6	6	2	L
16/05	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
10/05	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
06/05	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerezo Osaka win (53%). Probabilities: Cerezo Osaka 53%, draw 26%, Tokyo Verdy 21%.

How many goals are expected in Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Cerezo Osaka 1.75 · Tokyo Verdy 1.03), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.