Football · Japan J-League · 06/09, 12:30

Prediction: FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga FC

Team pages: FC Tokyo · Kyoto Sanga FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

FC Tokyo1.93

Kyoto Sanga FC1

1X2

58% 25% 18%

FC Tokyo Draw Kyoto Sanga FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Tokyo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLDWWD

Kyoto Sanga FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLDLWD

Head-to-head

FC Tokyo 3–3 Kyoto Sanga FC (6 last)

FC Tokyo0-4Kyoto Sanga FC
Kyoto Sanga FC3-0FC Tokyo
Kyoto Sanga FC3-0FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo2-1Kyoto Sanga FC
FC Tokyo2-0Kyoto Sanga FC
Kyoto Sanga FC1-3FC Tokyo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Tokyo 1508 · Kyoto Sanga FC 1462

	FC Tokyo	Draw	Kyoto Sanga FC
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tokyo (rating 1508 vs 1462).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Tokyo	Kyoto Sanga FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.7	1.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0.1	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.70

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.64
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 4.05 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:34 +10’	1.61	3.60	5.25
17:17 +3’	1.61	3.70▲	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +1’	1.66	3.98	4.97
15:07	1.64▼	4.05▲	5.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tokyo 3–0–3 Kyoto Sanga FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/25 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	0-4 HT 0-3	Kyoto Sanga FC
31/05/25 Japan J-League	Kyoto Sanga FC	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Tokyo
24/08/24 Japan J-League	Kyoto Sanga FC	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Tokyo
03/05/24 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	2-1 HT 2-0	Kyoto Sanga FC
12/08/23 Japan J-League	FC Tokyo	2-0 HT 1-0	Kyoto Sanga FC
18/06/23 Japan J-League Cup	Kyoto Sanga FC	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Tokyo

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	5	4	1	0	15	4	13
2	Kashiwa Reysol	5	4	0	1	10	6	12
3	Kashima Antlers	5	4	0	1	13	10	12
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	5	3	2	0	11	2	11
5	Vissel Kobe	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Cerezo Osaka	5	3	0	2	5	5	9
7	Mito Hollyhock	5	2	2	1	10	7	8
8	FC Tokyo	5	2	2	1	9	8	8
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
10	Fagiano Okayama	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
11	Kawasaki Frontale	5	1	3	1	9	8	6
12	Gamba Osaka	5	1	3	1	8	9	6
13	Nagoya Grampus	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
14	Urawa Red Diamonds	5	2	0	3	11	15	6
15	Kyoto Sanga FC	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	5	1	1	3	2	4	4
17	V-Varen Nagasaki	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
18	Avispa Fukuoka	5	1	0	4	8	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	5	0	2	3	2	8	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Tokyo	Kyoto Sanga FC
V-Varen Nagasaki	3-0 W	1-2 L
Vissel Kobe	2-2 D	0-1 L
Kawasaki Frontale	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tokyo (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Tokyo

WLWDLLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
29/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
21/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
15/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
08/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-2	1-5	2	3	L
23/05	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
16/05	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
10/05	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
06/05	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
02/05	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	6	2	W

Kyoto Sanga FC

DLLLWLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
22/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-2	1-3	1	0	L
15/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-1	2-2	1	3	D
09/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
23/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-1	0-4	1	3	L
13/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
10/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
06/05	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Tokyo win (58%). Probabilities: FC Tokyo 58%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga FC?

The model expects 2.93 goals (FC Tokyo 1.93 · Kyoto Sanga FC 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.