Football · Japan J-League · 06/09, 12:00
Prediction: Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki
Team pages: Vissel Kobe · V-Varen Nagasaki
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Vissel Kobe1.71
V-Varen Nagasaki0.89
1X2
Vissel Kobe
Draw
V-Varen Nagasaki
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Vissel Kobe
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
V-Varen Nagasaki
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Vissel Kobe
3–3–0
V-Varen Nagasaki
(6 last)
- V-Varen Nagasaki2-2Vissel Kobe
- Vissel Kobe2-0V-Varen Nagasaki
- Vissel Kobe1-1V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki0-1Vissel Kobe
- V-Varen Nagasaki1-2Vissel Kobe
- Vissel Kobe2-2V-Varen Nagasaki
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vissel Kobe 1552 · V-Varen Nagasaki 1460
| Vissel Kobe | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 26% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vissel Kobe (rating 1552 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Vissel Kobe: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Vissel Kobe | V-Varen Nagasaki | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 1.8 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Vissel Kobe 3–3–0 V-Varen Nagasaki
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Japan J-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Vissel Kobe |
| 13/02/26 Japan J-League | Vissel Kobe | 2-0 HT 2-0 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 06/10/18 Japan J-League | Vissel Kobe | 1-1 HT 1-1 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 18/07/18 Japan J-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Vissel Kobe |
| 18/04/18 Japan J-League Cup | V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Vissel Kobe |
| 07/03/18 Japan J-League Cup | Vissel Kobe | 2-2 HT 0-2 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Kashima Antlers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | FC Tokyo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Kawasaki Frontale | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Gamba Osaka | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 14 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| 15 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 16 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 20 | JEF Utd Chiba | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Vissel Kobe | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| FC Tokyo | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Fagiano Okayama | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Vissel Kobe (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vissel Kobe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 15/08 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/05 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 06/05 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
V-Varen Nagasaki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/08 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/05 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Vissel Kobe win (56%). Probabilities: Vissel Kobe 56%, draw 26%, V-Varen Nagasaki 18%.
How many goals are expected in Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Vissel Kobe 1.71 · V-Varen Nagasaki 0.89), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Vissel Kobe vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.