Football · Japan J-League · 12/09, 12:00

Prediction: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka

Team pages: Sanfrecce Hiroshima · Cerezo Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.88

Cerezo Osaka1.2

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Draw Cerezo Osaka

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWDDW

Cerezo Osaka 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–2–0 Cerezo Osaka (6 last)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-1Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka1-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Cerezo Osaka1-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-1Cerezo Osaka
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka1-1Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1607 vs 1560).
H2H favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Cerezo Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.6	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.81

Under 32.05

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.57
X	4.43 → 4.43	Pinn 4.43
2	5.21 → 5.21	Pinn 5.21

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +9’	1.57	4.43	5.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4–2–0 Cerezo Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-1 HT 0-1	Cerezo Osaka
22/02/26 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	1-2 HT 0-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
31/08/25 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	1-1 HT 1-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
06/04/25 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-1 HT 1-1	Cerezo Osaka
11/08/24 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-0 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka
26/05/24 Japan J-League	Cerezo Osaka	1-1 HT 0-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	6	5	1	0	18	5	16
2	Vissel Kobe	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
3	Kashima Antlers	6	4	0	2	13	11	12
4	Kashiwa Reysol	6	4	0	2	10	8	12
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	6	3	2	1	13	5	11
6	FC Tokyo	6	3	2	1	11	8	11
7	Yokohama F-Marinos	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
8	Fagiano Okayama	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
9	Cerezo Osaka	6	3	1	2	5	5	10
10	Kawasaki Frontale	6	2	3	1	12	9	9
11	Mito Hollyhock	6	2	3	1	11	8	9
12	Urawa Red Diamonds	6	3	0	3	12	15	9
13	Gamba Osaka	6	1	3	2	8	11	6
14	Nagoya Grampus	6	2	0	4	7	11	6
15	Kyoto Sanga FC	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
16	Avispa Fukuoka	6	1	1	4	9	10	4
17	Shimizu S-Pulse	6	1	1	4	3	7	4
18	V-Varen Nagasaki	6	1	1	4	7	14	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	6	0	3	3	2	8	3
20	JEF Utd Chiba	6	1	0	5	5	15	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus	3-0 W	6-1 W
Vissel Kobe	1-1 D	0-1 L
Fagiano Okayama	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

LDWWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
29/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-1	11	3	W
08/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	2	1	W
17/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	10	3	W
10/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
02/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Cerezo Osaka

DDWWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
29/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
22/08	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
15/08	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
08/08	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	2-1	2-1	5	1	W
24/05	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-0	3-2	3	4	W
17/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	3-1	6-1	4	1	W
09/05	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	8	3	W
06/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
03/05	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (52%). Probabilities: Sanfrecce Hiroshima 52%, draw 25%, Cerezo Osaka 23%.

How many goals are expected in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.88 · Cerezo Osaka 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.