Football · Japan J-League · 19/09, 11:30
Prediction: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka
Team pages: V-Varen Nagasaki · Cerezo Osaka
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
V-Varen Nagasaki1.29
Cerezo Osaka1.75
1X2
V-Varen Nagasaki
Draw
Cerezo Osaka
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
V-Varen Nagasaki
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Cerezo Osaka
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
V-Varen Nagasaki
1–5
Cerezo Osaka
(6 last)
- Cerezo Osaka3-2V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki1-0Cerezo Osaka
- V-Varen Nagasaki0-2Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka3-1V-Varen Nagasaki
- Cerezo Osaka2-0V-Varen Nagasaki
- V-Varen Nagasaki1-2Cerezo Osaka
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · V-Varen Nagasaki 1488 · Cerezo Osaka 1551
| V-Varen Nagasaki | Draw | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerezo Osaka (rating 1488 vs 1551).
- H2H favours Cerezo Osaka: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| V-Varen Nagasaki | Cerezo Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · V-Varen Nagasaki 1–0–5 Cerezo Osaka
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 3-2 HT 1-1 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 28/02/26 Japan J-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 19/08/18 Japan J-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Cerezo Osaka |
| 05/05/18 Japan J-League | Cerezo Osaka | 3-1 HT 2-0 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 11/09/16 Japan J2-League | Cerezo Osaka | 2-0 HT 0-0 | V-Varen Nagasaki |
| 08/06/16 Japan J2-League | V-Varen Nagasaki | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cerezo Osaka |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Fagiano Okayama | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| 8 | Kashima Antlers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 9 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Mito Hollyhock | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 12 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 9 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 6 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF Utd Chiba | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | V-Varen Nagasaki | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 2-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Vissel Kobe | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 2-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Fagiano Okayama | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerezo Osaka (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
V-Varen Nagasaki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/09 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 21/08 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/08 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Cerezo Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 02/09 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
3-1 | 6-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerezo Osaka win (47%). Probabilities: V-Varen Nagasaki 27%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka 47%.
How many goals are expected in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
The model expects 3.03 goals (V-Varen Nagasaki 1.29 · Cerezo Osaka 1.75), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in V-Varen Nagasaki vs Cerezo Osaka?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.