Football · Japan J-League · 19/09, 12:00
Prediction: FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus
Team pages: FC Tokyo · Nagoya Grampus
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
FC Tokyo1.91
Nagoya Grampus1.19
1X2
FC Tokyo
Draw
Nagoya Grampus
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Tokyo
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Nagoya Grampus
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Tokyo
3–2–1
Nagoya Grampus
(6 last)
- Nagoya Grampus1-1FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo3-1Nagoya Grampus
- FC Tokyo4-1Nagoya Grampus
- Nagoya Grampus3-1FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo2-0Nagoya Grampus
- Nagoya Grampus0-0FC Tokyo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Tokyo 1538 · Nagoya Grampus 1452
| FC Tokyo | Draw | Nagoya Grampus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Tokyo (rating 1538 vs 1452).
- H2H favours FC Tokyo: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 1.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Tokyo 3–2–1 Nagoya Grampus
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 Japan J-League | Nagoya Grampus | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FC Tokyo |
| 26/02/25 Japan J-League | FC Tokyo | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Nagoya Grampus |
| 14/09/24 Japan J-League | FC Tokyo | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Nagoya Grampus |
| 15/05/24 Japan J-League | Nagoya Grampus | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FC Tokyo |
| 24/06/23 Japan J-League | FC Tokyo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Nagoya Grampus |
| 18/03/23 Japan J-League | Nagoya Grampus | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Tokyo |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 15 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Fagiano Okayama | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| 8 | Kashima Antlers | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| 9 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 10 | Cerezo Osaka | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Mito Hollyhock | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
| 12 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 9 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 6 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| 17 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF Utd Chiba | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Tokyo | Nagoya Grampus |
|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Machida Zelvia | 1-5 L | 1-3 L |
| Kashima Antlers | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Tokyo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 29/08 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Vissel Kobe Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 08/08 | Machida Zelvia Japan J-League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 10/05 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Nagoya Grampus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Machida Zelvia Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Tokyo win (53%). Probabilities: FC Tokyo 53%, draw 25%, Nagoya Grampus 22%.
How many goals are expected in FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?
The model expects 3.1 goals (FC Tokyo 1.91 · Nagoya Grampus 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.