Football · Japan J-League · 19/09, 11:00

Prediction: Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Team pages: Avispa Fukuoka · Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Avispa Fukuoka1.04

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.74

1X2

21% 26% 53%

Avispa Fukuoka Draw Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Avispa Fukuoka 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLLDL

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDWLW

Head-to-head

Avispa Fukuoka 2–1–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (6 last)

Avispa Fukuoka2-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima0-1Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka1-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-1Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka1-0Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-1Avispa Fukuoka

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima (rating 1452 vs 1612).
H2H favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avispa Fukuoka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	2.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.2	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.52.01

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:52

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.98 → 3.98	Pinn 3.98
X	3.73 → 3.73	Pinn 3.73
2	1.88 → 1.88	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +39’	3.98	3.73	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Avispa Fukuoka 2–1–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/04/26 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	2-2 HT 1-2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
05/04/26 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0-1 HT 0-1	Avispa Fukuoka
27/09/25 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	1-2 HT 0-1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
08/06/25 Japan J-League Cup	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-1 HT 1-0	Avispa Fukuoka
04/06/25 Japan J-League Cup	Avispa Fukuoka	1-0 HT 0-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
03/05/25 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-1 HT 0-0	Avispa Fukuoka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	7	5	2	0	19	6	17
2	Vissel Kobe	7	5	1	1	11	5	16
3	Kashiwa Reysol	7	5	0	2	13	10	15
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	7	4	2	1	19	6	14
5	FC Tokyo	7	4	2	1	13	8	14
6	Kawasaki Frontale	7	3	3	1	13	9	12
7	Kashima Antlers	7	4	0	3	14	13	12
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	7	3	2	2	11	9	11
9	Fagiano Okayama	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
10	Cerezo Osaka	7	3	1	3	6	11	10
11	Mito Hollyhock	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
12	Urawa Red Diamonds	6	3	0	3	12	15	9
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	7	2	1	4	4	7	7
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	7	2	1	4	9	14	7
15	Gamba Osaka	7	1	3	3	8	13	6
16	Nagoya Grampus	7	2	0	5	7	13	6
17	Kyoto Sanga FC	7	1	2	4	9	14	5
18	Avispa Fukuoka	7	1	1	5	9	11	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	6	0	3	3	2	8	3
20	JEF Utd Chiba	6	1	0	5	5	15	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avispa Fukuoka	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Urawa Red Diamonds	2-3 L	4-1 W
Kyoto Sanga FC	1-2 L	4-0 W
Cerezo Osaka	3-0 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avispa Fukuoka

DDLLWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	8	2	L
15/08	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
08/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
23/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
06/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	8	3	D

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

WWWWWDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	3-0	6-1	9	1	W
06/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
02/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
29/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
22/08	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
15/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-1	11	3	W
08/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/05	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	2-1	4-2	2	1	W
17/05	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	10	3	W
10/05	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win (53%). Probabilities: Avispa Fukuoka 21%, draw 26%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 53%.

How many goals are expected in Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Avispa Fukuoka 1.04 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.74), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.