Football · Japan J-League · 09/10, 12:00

Prediction: Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka

Team pages: Kashima Antlers · Gamba Osaka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Kashima Antlers1.91

Gamba Osaka1.17

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Kashima Antlers Draw Gamba Osaka

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kashima Antlers 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLLLD

Gamba Osaka 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kashima Antlers 3–2–1 Gamba Osaka (6 last)

Kashima Antlers0-0Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka0-1Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers0-0Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka1-2Kashima Antlers
Gamba Osaka2-1Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers4-0Gamba Osaka

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kashima Antlers (rating 1560 vs 1503).
H2H favours Kashima Antlers: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kashima Antlers	Gamba Osaka
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	1.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.90
X	3.82 → 3.82	Pinn 3.82
2	3.77 → 3.77	Pinn 3.77

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +48’	1.90	3.82	3.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kashima Antlers 3–2–1 Gamba Osaka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/25 Japan J-League	Kashima Antlers	0-0 HT 0-0	Gamba Osaka
31/05/25 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	0-1 HT 0-1	Kashima Antlers
26/06/24 Japan J-League	Kashima Antlers	0-0 HT 0-0	Gamba Osaka
28/04/24 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	1-2 HT 1-1	Kashima Antlers
24/06/23 Japan J-League	Gamba Osaka	2-1 HT 2-0	Kashima Antlers
29/04/23 Japan J-League	Kashima Antlers	4-0 HT 0-0	Gamba Osaka

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	8	6	1	1	12	5	19
2	Kashiwa Reysol	8	6	0	2	17	12	18
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	5	2	1	20	6	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	5	2	1	21	10	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	5	2	1	14	8	17
6	Yokohama F-Marinos	8	4	2	2	13	9	14
7	Kawasaki Frontale	8	3	4	1	16	12	13
8	Kashima Antlers	8	4	1	3	17	16	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
10	Urawa Red Diamonds	8	4	0	4	16	18	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	3	2	3	7	12	11
12	Shimizu S-Pulse	8	3	1	4	6	8	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	2	3	3	11	11	9
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	8	2	2	4	11	15	8
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	8	2	2	4	10	15	8
16	Gamba Osaka	8	1	3	4	8	14	6
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	2	0	6	7	14	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	1	1	6	9	12	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	0	4	4	4	12	4
20	JEF Utd Chiba	8	1	1	6	7	18	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kashima Antlers	Gamba Osaka
Vissel Kobe	1-2 L	0-1 L
Urawa Red Diamonds	0-1 L	4-3 W
Mito Hollyhock	2-4 L	1-1 D
Nagoya Grampus	2-1 W	1-3 L
FC Tokyo	1-0 W	0-2 L
JEF Utd Chiba	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Kashima Antlers (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kashima Antlers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
11/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
06/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
02/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-2	2-4	4	2	L
29/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
22/08	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	2	2	W
15/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
07/08	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-2	4-3	9	1	W
23/05	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
17/05	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	0	3	W

Gamba Osaka

LWWDLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
12/09	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
06/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
02/09	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
22/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
15/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
07/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	4-3	5	4	W
24/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
10/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kashima Antlers win (54%). Probabilities: Kashima Antlers 54%, draw 24%, Gamba Osaka 22%.

How many goals are expected in Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Kashima Antlers 1.91 · Gamba Osaka 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kashima Antlers vs Gamba Osaka?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.