Football · Japan J-League · 18/10, 09:00

Prediction: Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka

Team pages: Machida Zelvia · Avispa Fukuoka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Machida Zelvia1.85

Avispa Fukuoka0.49

1X2

69% 22% 8%

Machida Zelvia Draw Avispa Fukuoka

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Machida Zelvia 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWDLW

Avispa Fukuoka 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLDLLW

Head-to-head

Machida Zelvia 1–4–1 Avispa Fukuoka (6 last)

Machida Zelvia0-0Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka2-2Machida Zelvia
Avispa Fukuoka0-3Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia0-0Avispa Fukuoka
Machida Zelvia0-0Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka2-1Machida Zelvia

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Machida Zelvia (rating 1592 vs 1444).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Machida Zelvia	Avispa Fukuoka
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.5	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.03

Under 2.51.81

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:22

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Pinn 1.83
X	3.57 → 3.57	Pinn 3.57
2	4.38 → 4.38	Pinn 4.38

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +157’	1.83	3.57	4.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Machida Zelvia 1–4–1 Avispa Fukuoka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/25 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	0-0 HT 0-0	Avispa Fukuoka
29/03/25 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	2-2 HT 1-1	Machida Zelvia
14/09/24 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	0-3 HT 0-0	Machida Zelvia
22/06/24 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	0-0 HT 0-0	Avispa Fukuoka
21/10/20 Japan J2-League	Machida Zelvia	0-0 HT 0-0	Avispa Fukuoka
13/09/20 Japan J2-League	Avispa Fukuoka	2-1 HT 2-1	Machida Zelvia

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	7	0	2	21	14	21
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	9	6	2	1	22	6	20
3	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	22	10	20
4	FC Tokyo	9	6	2	1	17	8	20
5	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
6	Kashima Antlers	9	5	1	3	19	16	16
7	Yokohama F-Marinos	9	4	3	2	13	9	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	9	3	4	2	17	14	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	12	12	13
10	Shimizu S-Pulse	9	4	1	4	8	9	13
11	Urawa Red Diamonds	9	4	0	5	16	21	12
12	Cerezo Osaka	9	3	3	3	7	12	12
13	Mito Hollyhock	9	2	3	4	12	13	9
14	V-Varen Nagasaki	9	2	3	4	11	16	9
15	Nagoya Grampus	9	3	0	6	9	15	9
16	Kyoto Sanga FC	9	2	2	5	11	16	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	11	13	7
18	Gamba Osaka	9	1	3	5	8	16	6
19	JEF Utd Chiba	9	1	2	6	8	19	5
20	Tokyo Verdy	9	0	4	5	4	14	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Machida Zelvia	Avispa Fukuoka
Kyoto Sanga FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Mito Hollyhock	1-1 D	1-1 D
Urawa Red Diamonds	3-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Machida Zelvia (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Machida Zelvia

WWWWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
20/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-4	1	4	L
12/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/09	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
29/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
23/08	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
15/08	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	2-0	4-0	8	3	W
08/08	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	2-1	5-1	5	3	W
22/05	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W

Avispa Fukuoka

LLWLLLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
19/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	8	2	L
15/08	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
08/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
23/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Machida Zelvia win (69%). Probabilities: Machida Zelvia 69%, draw 22%, Avispa Fukuoka 8%.

How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Machida Zelvia 1.85 · Avispa Fukuoka 0.49), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.