Football · Japan J-League · 10/10, 12:00
Prediction: Kyoto Sanga FC vs Machida Zelvia
Team pages: Kyoto Sanga FC · Machida Zelvia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Kyoto Sanga FC1.04
Machida Zelvia1.62
1X2
Kyoto Sanga FC
Draw
Machida Zelvia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Kyoto Sanga FC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Machida Zelvia
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kyoto Sanga FC
1–2–3
Machida Zelvia
(6 last)
- Machida Zelvia0-0Kyoto Sanga FC
- Kyoto Sanga FC1-1Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia1-0Kyoto Sanga FC
- Machida Zelvia1-2Kyoto Sanga FC
- Machida Zelvia1-0Kyoto Sanga FC
- Kyoto Sanga FC0-3Machida Zelvia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kyoto Sanga FC 1493 · Machida Zelvia 1581
| Kyoto Sanga FC | Draw | Machida Zelvia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Market | 24% | 26% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Machida Zelvia (rating 1493 vs 1581).
- H2H favours Machida Zelvia: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kyoto Sanga FC | Machida Zelvia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.9 | 2.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.3 | 1.2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kyoto Sanga FC 1–2–3 Machida Zelvia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/26 Japan J-League Cup | Machida Zelvia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Kyoto Sanga FC |
| 23/09/25 Japan J-League | Kyoto Sanga FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Machida Zelvia |
| 06/08/25 Japan FA Cup | Machida Zelvia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kyoto Sanga FC |
| 07/05/25 Japan J-League | Machida Zelvia | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Kyoto Sanga FC |
| 30/11/24 Japan J-League | Machida Zelvia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kyoto Sanga FC |
| 06/05/24 Japan J-League | Kyoto Sanga FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Machida Zelvia |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima Antlers | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF Utd Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kyoto Sanga FC | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol | 2-3 L | 2-4 L |
| FC Tokyo | 0-2 L | 5-1 W |
| Yokohama F-Marinos | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Mito Hollyhock | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Machida Zelvia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kyoto Sanga FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/09 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
2-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 09/08 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
Machida Zelvia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League |
1-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 29/08 | Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kyoto Sanga FC vs Machida Zelvia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Machida Zelvia win (50%). Probabilities: Kyoto Sanga FC 23%, draw 27%, Machida Zelvia 50%.
How many goals are expected in Kyoto Sanga FC vs Machida Zelvia?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Kyoto Sanga FC 1.04 · Machida Zelvia 1.62), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Kyoto Sanga FC vs Machida Zelvia?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.