Football · Japan J-League · 10/10, 08:00

Prediction: Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama

Team pages: Avispa Fukuoka · Fagiano Okayama

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Avispa Fukuoka0.99

Fagiano Okayama1.34

1X2

26% 30% 44%

Avispa Fukuoka Draw Fagiano Okayama

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Avispa Fukuoka 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLDLL

Fagiano Okayama 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Avispa Fukuoka 2–3–1 Fagiano Okayama (6 last)

Fagiano Okayama2-0Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka1-1Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama0-1Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka1-1Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama1-1Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka1-0Fagiano Okayama

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fagiano Okayama (rating 1426 vs 1534).
H2H favours Avispa Fukuoka: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avispa Fukuoka	Fagiano Okayama
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.07

Under 2.251.79

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:01

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.23 → 3.23	Pinn 3.23
X	2.96 → 2.96	Pinn 2.96
2	2.49 → 2.49	Pinn 2.49

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:31 +270’	3.23	2.96	2.49

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Avispa Fukuoka 2–3–1 Fagiano Okayama

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Japan J-League	Fagiano Okayama	2-0 HT 1-0	Avispa Fukuoka
08/02/26 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	1-1 HT 0-1	Fagiano Okayama
15/06/25 Japan J-League	Fagiano Okayama	0-1 HT 0-0	Avispa Fukuoka
25/04/25 Japan J-League	Avispa Fukuoka	1-1 HT 1-0	Fagiano Okayama
02/12/20 Japan J2-League	Fagiano Okayama	1-1 HT 0-0	Avispa Fukuoka
25/07/20 Japan J2-League	Avispa Fukuoka	1-0 HT 1-0	Fagiano Okayama

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	8	6	1	1	12	5	19
2	Kashiwa Reysol	8	6	0	2	17	12	18
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	8	5	2	1	20	6	17
4	Machida Zelvia	8	5	2	1	21	10	17
5	FC Tokyo	8	5	2	1	14	8	17
6	Yokohama F-Marinos	8	4	2	2	13	9	14
7	Kawasaki Frontale	8	3	4	1	16	12	13
8	Kashima Antlers	8	4	1	3	17	16	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	8	4	1	3	11	10	13
10	Urawa Red Diamonds	8	4	0	4	16	18	12
11	Cerezo Osaka	8	3	2	3	7	12	11
12	Shimizu S-Pulse	8	3	1	4	6	8	10
13	Mito Hollyhock	8	2	3	3	11	11	9
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	8	2	2	4	11	15	8
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	8	2	2	4	10	15	8
16	Gamba Osaka	8	1	3	4	8	14	6
17	Nagoya Grampus	8	2	0	6	7	14	6
18	Avispa Fukuoka	8	1	1	6	9	12	4
19	Tokyo Verdy	8	0	4	4	4	12	4
20	JEF Utd Chiba	8	1	1	6	7	18	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avispa Fukuoka	Fagiano Okayama
Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0-1 L	3-2 W
Shimizu S-Pulse	0-1 L	2-0 W
Urawa Red Diamonds	2-3 L	2-1 W
Kyoto Sanga FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Cerezo Osaka	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fagiano Okayama (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avispa Fukuoka

DLLWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
12/09	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
05/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
02/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	2-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/08	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/08	Kashima Antlers Japan J-League	1-1	2-3	8	2	L
15/08	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
08/08	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
23/05	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
10/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

Fagiano Okayama

WLLWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	7	5	L
13/09	Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
06/09	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
02/09	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
29/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
15/08	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
08/08	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
24/05	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	0-1	2-3	8	4	L
17/05	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fagiano Okayama win (44%). Probabilities: Avispa Fukuoka 26%, draw 30%, Fagiano Okayama 44%.

How many goals are expected in Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Avispa Fukuoka 0.99 · Fagiano Okayama 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.