Football · Japan J3-League · 22/08, 12:00

Prediction: Thespa Gunma vs Reilac Shiga

Team pages: Thespa Gunma · Reilac Shiga

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Thespa Gunma1.8
Reilac Shiga1.52
1X2
43% 26% 31%
Thespa Gunma Draw Reilac Shiga
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Thespa Gunma 4-1-5 (W-D-L)
WWDLWLLLLW
Reilac Shiga 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
LWLWDDLLWW
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thespa Gunma 1477 · Reilac Shiga 1486
Thespa GunmaDrawReilac Shiga
Our model44%25%32%
Market43%26%31%
Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Thespa GunmaReilac Shiga
Goals for / against (FT)1.6 / 1.71.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.50.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)30/30/40%0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 42.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.2 / 0.22.2 / 0.1

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 FC Gifu 2200 1006
2 Ehime FC 2200 816
3 Kagoshima United 2200 416
4 Sagamihara 2110 414
5 FC Osaka 2110 534
6 Tochigi SC 2110 324
7 Kamatamare Sanuki 2110 214
8 Zweigen Kanazawa 2101 663
9 Renofa Yamaguchi 2101 113
10 Parceiro Nagano 2101 343
11 Reilac Shiga 2101 353
12 Roasso Kumamoto 2020 002
13 Giravanz Kitakyushu 1010 001
14 Matsumoto Y FC 2011 231
15 Gainare Tottori 2011 151
16 Kochi United 2011 071
17 FC Ryukyu 1001 010
18 Fukushima Utd 2002 460
19 Thespa Gunma 2002 150
20 Nara Club 2002 270

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentThespa GunmaReilac Shiga
Kagoshima United 0-1 L 1-0 W
FC Gifu 0-1 L 0-3 L
Tochigi City 0-0 D 1-3 L
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 2 L 1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Thespa Gunma (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thespa Gunma

WWDLWLLLLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/08 Tohoku Gakuin University
Japan FA Cup
1-0 3-1 W
15/08 Sagamihara
Japan J3-League
0-2 1-4 52 L
08/08 Kagoshima United
Japan J3-League
0-1 0-1 63 L
07/06 Zweigen Kanazawa
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-0 1-4 55 L
31/05 FC Gifu
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-1 0-1 22 L
23/05 Sagamihara
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
2-0 7-2 54 W
17/05 Blaublitz Akita
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-1 1-3 41 L
09/05 Tochigi City
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-0 0-0 32 D
06/05 Montedio Yamagata
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
1-0 2-1 32 W
03/05 Vanraure Hachinohe
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-0 1-0 31 W

Reilac Shiga

LWLWDDLLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/08 Japan Soccer College
Japan FA Cup
0-0 2-1 73 W
16/08 Matsumoto Y FC
Japan J3-League
0-1 3-2 52 W
09/08 FC Gifu
Japan J3-League
0-0 0-3 22 L
06/06 Tochigi City
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-1 1-3 54 L
30/05 FC Osaka
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-0 0-0 101 D
24/05 Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
1-1 2-2 46 D
17/05 Giravanz Kitakyushu
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-0 1-0 81 W
13/05 Gainare Tottori
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
1-1 2-3 61 L
10/05 Kagoshima United
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-0 1-0 03 W
06/05 Renofa Yamaguchi
Japan J2/J3 Centennial League
0-2 1-4 60 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thespa Gunma vs Reilac Shiga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Thespa Gunma win (43%). Probabilities: Thespa Gunma 43%, draw 26%, Reilac Shiga 31%.

How many goals are expected in Thespa Gunma vs Reilac Shiga?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Thespa Gunma 1.8 · Reilac Shiga 1.52), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Thespa Gunma vs Reilac Shiga?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.