Football · Japan J3-League · 30/08, 11:00

Prediction: Parceiro Nagano vs Thespa Gunma

Team pages: Parceiro Nagano · Thespa Gunma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Parceiro Nagano1.57

Thespa Gunma1.4

1X2

40% 27% 32%

Parceiro Nagano Draw Thespa Gunma

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Parceiro Nagano 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLLWLW

Thespa Gunma 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLLL

Head-to-head

Parceiro Nagano 2–2–2 Thespa Gunma (6 last)

Thespa Gunma0-0Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano3-2Thespa Gunma
Thespa Gunma3-2Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano0-1Thespa Gunma
Thespa Gunma0-1Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano2-2Thespa Gunma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parceiro Nagano 1442 · Thespa Gunma 1481

	Parceiro Nagano	Draw	Thespa Gunma
Our model	41%	27%	33%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parceiro Nagano	Thespa Gunma
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.9	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +2’	2.25	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parceiro Nagano 2–2–2 Thespa Gunma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/25 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	0-0 HT 0-0	Parceiro Nagano
01/03/25 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	3-2 HT 1-1	Thespa Gunma
31/08/19 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	3-2 HT 1-0	Parceiro Nagano
16/06/19 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	0-1 HT 0-0	Thespa Gunma
15/07/18 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	0-1 HT 0-1	Parceiro Nagano
06/05/18 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	2-2 HT 0-1	Thespa Gunma

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gifu	3	2	1	0	10	0	7
2	Ehime FC	3	2	1	0	10	3	7
3	Sagamihara	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	Kagoshima United	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
5	Parceiro Nagano	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
6	Reilac Shiga	3	2	0	1	6	7	6
7	FC Osaka	3	1	2	0	7	5	5
8	Tochigi SC	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
9	Kamatamare Sanuki	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Gainare Tottori	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
11	Kochi United	3	1	1	1	2	8	4
12	Zweigen Kanazawa	3	1	0	2	7	8	3
13	Renofa Yamaguchi	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	Nara Club	3	1	0	2	5	8	3
15	Giravanz Kitakyushu	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
16	Matsumoto Y FC	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
17	Roasso Kumamoto	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
18	FC Ryukyu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
19	Fukushima Utd	3	0	0	3	5	8	0
20	Thespa Gunma	3	0	0	3	3	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parceiro Nagano	Thespa Gunma
Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0-1 L	2-1 W
Kochi United	0-1 L	1-0 W
Azul Claro Numazu	2-1 W	2-1 W
Nara Club	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Thespa Gunma (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parceiro Nagano

LWLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
16/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	2-4	4	2	L
08/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
29/11	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-4	3	0	L
23/11	Tochigi City Japan J3-League	0-0	0-3	6	4	L
15/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	7	0	L
10/11	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
02/11	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
25/10	Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League	0-1	2-1	6	1	W
18/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L

Thespa Gunma

LWWWWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-3	2-3	5	3	L
15/08	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
08/08	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
29/11	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	2-2	6-2	1	2	W
16/11	Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League	2-0	2-1	2	0	W
09/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
02/11	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	6	1	W
25/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	6	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parceiro Nagano vs Thespa Gunma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parceiro Nagano win (40%). Probabilities: Parceiro Nagano 40%, draw 27%, Thespa Gunma 32%.

How many goals are expected in Parceiro Nagano vs Thespa Gunma?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Parceiro Nagano 1.57 · Thespa Gunma 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Parceiro Nagano vs Thespa Gunma?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.