Football · Japan J3-League · 29/08, 11:00
Prediction: FC Ryukyu vs Sagamihara
Team pages: FC Ryukyu · Sagamihara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
FC Ryukyu1.37
Sagamihara1.66
1X2
FC Ryukyu
Draw
Sagamihara
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Ryukyu
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Sagamihara
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Ryukyu
2–2–2
Sagamihara
(6 last)
- Sagamihara4-1FC Ryukyu
- FC Ryukyu2-0Sagamihara
- FC Ryukyu2-1Sagamihara
- Sagamihara0-0FC Ryukyu
- FC Ryukyu0-4Sagamihara
- Sagamihara0-0FC Ryukyu
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Ryukyu 1467 · Sagamihara 1559
| FC Ryukyu | Draw | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 30% | 28% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagamihara (rating 1467 vs 1559).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ryukyu | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.4 | 2.8 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ryukyu 2–2–2 Sagamihara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/25 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 4-1 HT 2-0 | FC Ryukyu |
| 05/04/25 Japan J3-League | FC Ryukyu | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sagamihara |
| 12/10/24 Japan J3-League | FC Ryukyu | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sagamihara |
| 17/03/24 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Ryukyu |
| 26/08/23 Japan J3-League | FC Ryukyu | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
| 28/05/23 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Ryukyu |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gifu | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Parceiro Nagano | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Reilac Shiga | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Osaka | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 | Tochigi SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Gainare Tottori | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Kochi United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 13 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Nara Club | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Y FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 17 | Roasso Kumamoto | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | FC Ryukyu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Fukushima Utd | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 | Thespa Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ryukyu | Sagamihara |
|---|---|---|
| Azul Claro Numazu | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Tochigi City | 2-2 D | 0-5 L |
| Kochi United | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ryukyu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 15/08 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/11 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/11 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 16/11 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 09/11 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 03/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 25/10 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 18/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Sagamihara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 16/11 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 09/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/11 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 26/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Ryukyu vs Sagamihara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sagamihara win (43%). Probabilities: FC Ryukyu 30%, draw 27%, Sagamihara 43%.
How many goals are expected in FC Ryukyu vs Sagamihara?
The model expects 3.03 goals (FC Ryukyu 1.37 · Sagamihara 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Ryukyu vs Sagamihara?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.