Football · Japan J3-League · 29/08, 11:00

Prediction: Fukushima Utd vs Nara Club

Team pages: Fukushima Utd · Nara Club

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.71Total

Fukushima Utd1.92

Nara Club1.79

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Fukushima Utd Draw Nara Club

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Fukushima Utd 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWLLL

Nara Club 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Fukushima Utd 2–3–1 Nara Club (6 last)

Fukushima Utd2-1Nara Club
Nara Club2-2Fukushima Utd
Nara Club1-1Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd2-1Nara Club
Nara Club1-1Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd0-5Nara Club

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fukushima Utd 1502 · Nara Club 1476

	Fukushima Utd	Draw	Nara Club
Our model	41%	23%	36%
Market	40%	26%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fukushima Utd: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fukushima Utd	Nara Club
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	2.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:10 +1’	2.25	3.50	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fukushima Utd 2–3–1 Nara Club

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/11/25 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	2-1 HT 1-1	Nara Club
16/02/25 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	2-2 HT 2-2	Fukushima Utd
02/11/24 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	1-1 HT 1-0	Fukushima Utd
06/05/24 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	Nara Club
14/10/23 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	1-1 HT 0-0	Fukushima Utd
01/07/23 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	0-5 HT 0-2	Nara Club

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gifu	3	2	1	0	10	0	7
2	Ehime FC	3	2	1	0	10	3	7
3	Sagamihara	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	Kagoshima United	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
5	Parceiro Nagano	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
6	Reilac Shiga	3	2	0	1	6	7	6
7	FC Osaka	3	1	2	0	7	5	5
8	Tochigi SC	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
9	Kamatamare Sanuki	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
10	Gainare Tottori	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
11	Kochi United	3	1	1	1	2	8	4
12	Zweigen Kanazawa	3	1	0	2	7	8	3
13	Renofa Yamaguchi	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	Nara Club	3	1	0	2	5	8	3
15	Giravanz Kitakyushu	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
16	Matsumoto Y FC	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
17	Roasso Kumamoto	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
18	FC Ryukyu	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
19	Fukushima Utd	3	0	0	3	5	8	0
20	Thespa Gunma	3	0	0	3	3	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fukushima Utd	Nara Club
Gainare Tottori	1-2 L	1-2 L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki	2-1 W	2-2 D
Thespa Gunma	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fukushima Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fukushima Utd

WLLWWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	8	2	L
15/08	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	2-0	3-4	3	3	L
09/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	9	1	L
29/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
23/11	Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
16/11	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
09/11	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
02/11	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
26/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
18/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	5	0	W

Nara Club

WLDDLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
09/08	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-3	1-4	3	0	L
29/11	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
24/11	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	2-0	2-1	5	1	W
16/11	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
08/11	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
25/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
18/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fukushima Utd vs Nara Club?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fukushima Utd win (40%). Probabilities: Fukushima Utd 40%, draw 25%, Nara Club 35%.

How many goals are expected in Fukushima Utd vs Nara Club?

The model expects 3.71 goals (Fukushima Utd 1.92 · Nara Club 1.79), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fukushima Utd vs Nara Club?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.