Football · Japan J3-League · 29/08, 11:00
Prediction: Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kagoshima United
Team pages: Kamatamare Sanuki · Kagoshima United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Kamatamare Sanuki1
Kagoshima United1.41
1X2
Kamatamare Sanuki
Draw
Kagoshima United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Kamatamare Sanuki
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Kagoshima United
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kamatamare Sanuki
1–3–2
Kagoshima United
(6 last)
- Kamatamare Sanuki0-0Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United1-1Kamatamare Sanuki
- Kagoshima United1-1Kamatamare Sanuki
- Kamatamare Sanuki2-0Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United3-2Kamatamare Sanuki
- Kamatamare Sanuki0-4Kagoshima United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kamatamare Sanuki 1491 · Kagoshima United 1570
| Kamatamare Sanuki | Draw | Kagoshima United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 29% | 45% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1491 vs 1570).
- H2H favours Kagoshima United: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kamatamare Sanuki | Kagoshima United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.9 | 2 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kamatamare Sanuki 1–3–2 Kagoshima United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/25 Japan J3-League | Kamatamare Sanuki | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Kagoshima United |
| 16/02/25 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Kamatamare Sanuki |
| 16/09/23 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Kamatamare Sanuki |
| 02/04/23 Japan J3-League | Kamatamare Sanuki | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Kagoshima United |
| 11/09/22 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Kamatamare Sanuki |
| 29/05/22 Japan J3-League | Kamatamare Sanuki | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Kagoshima United |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gifu | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Sagamihara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Parceiro Nagano | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Reilac Shiga | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Osaka | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 | Tochigi SC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Gainare Tottori | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Kochi United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 |
| 12 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| 13 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | Nara Club | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Y FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 17 | Roasso Kumamoto | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 18 | FC Ryukyu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Fukushima Utd | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 | Thespa Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kamatamare Sanuki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 29/11 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 23/11 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 16/11 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 08/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/11 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/10 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 19/10 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 13/10 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
Kagoshima United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/12 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/11 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
| 16/11 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 09/11 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 02/11 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kagoshima United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kagoshima United win (46%). Probabilities: Kamatamare Sanuki 26%, draw 28%, Kagoshima United 46%.
How many goals are expected in Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kagoshima United?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Kamatamare Sanuki 1 · Kagoshima United 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Kamatamare Sanuki vs Kagoshima United?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.