Football · Japan J3-League · 22/08, 11:00

Prediction: FC Osaka vs FC Ryukyu

Team pages: FC Osaka · FC Ryukyu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

FC Osaka1.72

FC Ryukyu0.99

1X2

54% 26% 21%

FC Osaka Draw FC Ryukyu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Osaka 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDDDWW

FC Ryukyu 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDWDL

Head-to-head

FC Osaka 4–1–1 FC Ryukyu (6 last)

FC Osaka3-0FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu0-1FC Osaka
FC Ryukyu1-1FC Osaka
FC Osaka0-1FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu1-3FC Osaka
FC Osaka3-0FC Ryukyu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Osaka 1544 · FC Ryukyu 1476

	FC Osaka	Draw	FC Ryukyu
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Osaka (rating 1544 vs 1476).
H2H favours FC Osaka: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Osaka	FC Ryukyu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.6	1.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.71
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.53
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.48 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +12’	1.67	3.50	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +8’	1.71	3.53	4.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Osaka 4–1–1 FC Ryukyu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/25 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Ryukyu
22/02/25 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Osaka
28/09/24 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Osaka
06/05/24 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Ryukyu
12/08/23 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	1-3 HT 0-2	FC Osaka
18/06/23 Japan J3-League	FC Osaka	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Ryukyu

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gifu	2	2	0	0	10	0	6
2	Ehime FC	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
3	Kagoshima United	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Sagamihara	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
5	FC Osaka	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
6	Tochigi SC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Kamatamare Sanuki	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Zweigen Kanazawa	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
9	Renofa Yamaguchi	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Parceiro Nagano	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
11	Reilac Shiga	2	1	0	1	3	5	3
12	Roasso Kumamoto	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
13	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
14	Matsumoto Y FC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Gainare Tottori	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
16	Kochi United	2	0	1	1	0	7	1
17	FC Ryukyu	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Fukushima Utd	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
19	Thespa Gunma	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
20	Nara Club	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Osaka	FC Ryukyu
Gainare Tottori	1-1 D	1-3 L
FC Imabari	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Osaka

DWLDDDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Nara Club Japan FA Cup	1-1	4-1	9	2	W
16/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-2	6	2	W
08/08	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
06/06	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/05	Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
24/05	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	2-2	7	3	D
17/05	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
09/05	FC Imabari Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
06/05	Nara Club Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
02/05	Kochi United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	8	5	D

FC Ryukyu

DLDLWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
07/06	Fukushima Utd Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
31/05	FC Imabari Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
23/05	Sagan Tosu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-2	5	0	D
17/05	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-2	1-3	12	1	L
10/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
03/05	Kagoshima United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	1-1	3	1	D
29/04	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
25/04	Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Osaka vs FC Ryukyu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Osaka win (54%). Probabilities: FC Osaka 54%, draw 26%, FC Ryukyu 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Osaka vs FC Ryukyu?

The model expects 2.71 goals (FC Osaka 1.72 · FC Ryukyu 0.99), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Osaka vs FC Ryukyu?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.