Football · Japan J3-League · 22/08, 12:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs FC Gifu

Team pages: Kagoshima United · FC Gifu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Kagoshima United1.73

FC Gifu1.26

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Kagoshima United Draw FC Gifu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDWWWW

FC Gifu 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWDWWW

Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 4–2 FC Gifu (6 last)

FC Gifu1-3Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United3-2FC Gifu
Kagoshima United2-1FC Gifu
FC Gifu1-0Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United1-0FC Gifu
FC Gifu2-1Kagoshima United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1574 · FC Gifu 1516

	Kagoshima United	Draw	FC Gifu
Our model	47%	26%	27%
Market	46%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1574 vs 1516).
H2H favours Kagoshima United: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	FC Gifu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.8	1.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.19 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +20’	1.95	3.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +17’	2.19	3.17	3.13

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 4–0–2 FC Gifu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/10/25 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	1-3 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United
07/06/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Gifu
02/09/23 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	2-1 HT 2-0	FC Gifu
18/03/23 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	1-0 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
13/11/22 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Gifu
12/06/22 Japan J3-League	FC Gifu	2-1 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gifu	2	2	0	0	10	0	6
2	Ehime FC	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
3	Kagoshima United	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Sagamihara	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
5	FC Osaka	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
6	Tochigi SC	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Kamatamare Sanuki	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Zweigen Kanazawa	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
9	Renofa Yamaguchi	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
10	Parceiro Nagano	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
11	Reilac Shiga	2	1	0	1	3	5	3
12	Roasso Kumamoto	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
13	Giravanz Kitakyushu	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
14	Matsumoto Y FC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
15	Gainare Tottori	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
16	Kochi United	2	0	1	1	0	7	1
17	FC Ryukyu	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Fukushima Utd	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
19	Thespa Gunma	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
20	Nara Club	2	0	0	2	2	7	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kagoshima United	FC Gifu
Thespa Gunma	1-0 W	1-0 W
Reilac Shiga	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gifu (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Kagoshima United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan FA Cup	2-0	2-1	1	4	W
16/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
07/06	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
30/05	Albirex Niigata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
24/05	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	5-1	9	2	W
17/05	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
10/05	Reilac Shiga Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
06/05	Oita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
03/05	FC Ryukyu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	1-1	12	1	D

FC Gifu

LLWDLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Toyama Shinjo Club Japan FA Cup	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Kochi United Japan J3-League	3-0	7-0	5	4	W
09/08	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
06/06	Gainare Tottori Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	11	1	D
31/05	Thespa Gunma Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
23/05	Omiya Ardija Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
16/05	Ventforet Kofu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-1	2-2	7	1	D
09/05	Parceiro Nagano Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
06/05	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
02/05	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-3	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs FC Gifu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (47%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 47%, draw 27%, FC Gifu 26%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs FC Gifu?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Kagoshima United 1.73 · FC Gifu 1.26), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs FC Gifu?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.