Football · Japan J3-League · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Tochigi SC vs Kochi United

Team pages: Tochigi SC · Kochi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Tochigi SC1.35

Kochi United0.8

1X2

49% 29% 22%

Tochigi SC Draw Kochi United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tochigi SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Kochi United 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Tochigi SC 2–0 Kochi United (2 last)

Kochi United0-1Tochigi SC
Tochigi SC1-0Kochi United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tochigi SC 1514 · Kochi United 1414

	Tochigi SC	Draw	Kochi United
Our model	49%	31%	21%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tochigi SC (rating 1514 vs 1414).
H2H favours Tochigi SC: 2-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tochigi SC	Kochi United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +16’	1.80	3.30	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tochigi SC 2–0–0 Kochi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/25 Japan J3-League	Kochi United	0-1 HT 0-1	Tochigi SC
16/02/25 Japan J3-League	Tochigi SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Kochi United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gifu	4	3	1	0	14	1	10
2	Kagoshima United	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
3	Ehime FC	3	2	1	0	10	3	7
4	Sagamihara	4	2	1	1	7	4	7
5	Parceiro Nagano	3	2	0	1	4	4	6
6	Reilac Shiga	3	2	0	1	6	7	6
7	FC Osaka	3	1	2	0	7	5	5
8	Tochigi SC	4	1	2	1	6	8	5
9	FC Ryukyu	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
11	Nara Club	4	1	1	2	7	10	4
12	Gainare Tottori	3	1	1	1	3	6	4
13	Kochi United	3	1	1	1	2	8	4
14	Zweigen Kanazawa	3	1	0	2	7	8	3
15	Renofa Yamaguchi	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
17	Matsumoto Y FC	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
18	Roasso Kumamoto	3	0	2	1	0	1	2
19	Fukushima Utd	4	0	1	3	7	10	1
20	Thespa Gunma	3	0	0	3	3	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tochigi SC	Kochi United
FC Gifu	1-4 L	0-7 L
Roasso Kumamoto	0-0 D	0-2 L
Parceiro Nagano	4-0 W	1-0 W
FC Osaka	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Tochigi SC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tochigi SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
22/08	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
15/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
09/08	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-1	3-2	6	2	W
29/11	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-0	4-0	6	0	W
23/11	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
16/11	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
09/11	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
02/11	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
24/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

Kochi United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
23/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
15/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-3	0-7	4	4	L
08/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
29/11	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
24/11	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	4	0	L
15/11	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
09/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
02/11	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	0	1	W
26/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tochigi SC vs Kochi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tochigi SC win (49%). Probabilities: Tochigi SC 49%, draw 29%, Kochi United 22%.

How many goals are expected in Tochigi SC vs Kochi United?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Tochigi SC 1.35 · Kochi United 0.8), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tochigi SC vs Kochi United?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.