Football · Japan J3-League · 05/09, 12:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs FC Ryukyu

Team pages: Kagoshima United · FC Ryukyu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Kagoshima United2.06

FC Ryukyu1.14

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Kagoshima United Draw FC Ryukyu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLWWDW

FC Ryukyu 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLDDLDW

Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 3–2–1 FC Ryukyu (6 last)

FC Ryukyu1-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United3-1FC Ryukyu
Kagoshima United1-1FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu1-2Kagoshima United
FC Ryukyu2-0Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United2-0FC Ryukyu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1580 · FC Ryukyu 1471

	Kagoshima United	Draw	FC Ryukyu
Our model	58%	23%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1580 vs 1471).
H2H favours Kagoshima United: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	FC Ryukyu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 6.3	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.59
X	4.00 → 3.70▼	Pinn 3.85
2	5.75 → 4.75▼	Pinn 4.95 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:36 +6’	1.44	4.00	5.75
19:31 +3’	1.57▲	3.70▼	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +6’	1.59	3.85	4.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 3–2–1 FC Ryukyu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	FC Ryukyu	1-1 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United
15/02/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Kagoshima United	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Ryukyu
23/11/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Ryukyu
06/05/25 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	1-2 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United
11/11/23 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	2-0 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
14/05/23 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Ryukyu

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gifu	4	3	1	0	14	1	10
2	Ehime FC	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
3	Kagoshima United	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	Sagamihara	4	2	1	1	7	4	7
5	Gainare Tottori	4	2	1	1	4	6	7
6	FC Osaka	4	1	3	0	7	5	6
7	Parceiro Nagano	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
8	Reilac Shiga	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
9	Roasso Kumamoto	4	1	2	1	2	1	5
10	Tochigi SC	4	1	2	1	6	8	5
11	FC Ryukyu	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
12	Kamatamare Sanuki	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
13	Renofa Yamaguchi	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
14	Nara Club	4	1	1	2	7	10	4
15	Kochi United	4	1	1	2	2	10	4
16	Giravanz Kitakyushu	3	0	3	0	3	3	3
17	Matsumoto Y FC	4	0	3	1	5	6	3
18	Zweigen Kanazawa	4	1	0	3	7	9	3
19	Thespa Gunma	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
20	Fukushima Utd	4	0	1	3	7	10	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kagoshima United

WLDDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-1	4-3	3	1	W
22/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
16/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
07/12	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
29/11	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-3	2-4	6	4	L
23/11	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	13	3	D
16/11	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	13	2	D
09/11	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	6	0	L
02/11	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	3-2	6	2	W

FC Ryukyu

WLDLLDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	2-0	2-1	8	2	W
22/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-0	2-2	8	1	D
15/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
29/11	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
23/11	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
16/11	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	1	1	L
09/11	Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League	1-1	2-3	0	3	L
03/11	Tochigi City Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
25/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
18/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs FC Ryukyu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (57%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 57%, draw 24%, FC Ryukyu 19%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs FC Ryukyu?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Kagoshima United 2.06 · FC Ryukyu 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs FC Ryukyu?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.