Football · Japan J3-League · 05/09, 11:00
Prediction: Matsumoto Y FC vs FC Osaka
Team pages: Matsumoto Y FC · FC Osaka
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Matsumoto Y FC1.55
FC Osaka1.24
1X2
Matsumoto Y FC
Draw
FC Osaka
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Matsumoto Y FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
FC Osaka
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Matsumoto Y FC
1–3–2
FC Osaka
(6 last)
- Matsumoto Y FC1-1FC Osaka
- Matsumoto Y FC1-1FC Osaka
- FC Osaka1-0Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC2-0FC Osaka
- FC Osaka0-0Matsumoto Y FC
- FC Osaka3-1Matsumoto Y FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matsumoto Y FC 1474 · FC Osaka 1560
| Matsumoto Y FC | Draw | FC Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Osaka (rating 1474 vs 1560).
- H2H favours FC Osaka: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Matsumoto Y FC | FC Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.8 | 3.4 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 1.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matsumoto Y FC 1–3–2 FC Osaka
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/25 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | FC Osaka |
| 25/05/25 Japan FA Cup | Matsumoto Y FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | FC Osaka |
| 07/05/25 Japan J3-League | FC Osaka | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 14/07/24 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | FC Osaka |
| 23/03/24 Japan J3-League | FC Osaka | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 03/09/23 Japan J3-League | FC Osaka | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Matsumoto Y FC |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gifu | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Kagoshima United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Sagamihara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Gainare Tottori | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Parceiro Nagano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Reilac Shiga | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Tochigi SC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | FC Ryukyu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Nara Club | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 4 |
| 15 | Kochi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Y FC | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 18 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Thespa Gunma | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 20 | Fukushima Utd | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Matsumoto Y FC | FC Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Kochi United | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matsumoto Y FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 29/11 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/11 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-2 | 2-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/11 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 09/11 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 02/11 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
FC Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 16/08 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 14/12 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 07/12 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/11 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 24/11 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 16/11 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 10/11 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matsumoto Y FC vs FC Osaka?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Matsumoto Y FC win (43%). Probabilities: Matsumoto Y FC 43%, draw 28%, FC Osaka 29%.
How many goals are expected in Matsumoto Y FC vs FC Osaka?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Matsumoto Y FC 1.55 · FC Osaka 1.24), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Matsumoto Y FC vs FC Osaka?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.