Football · Japan J3-League · 05/09, 11:00
Prediction: Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano
Team pages: Sagamihara · Parceiro Nagano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.65Total
Sagamihara1.62
Parceiro Nagano1.03
1X2
Sagamihara
Draw
Parceiro Nagano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sagamihara
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Parceiro Nagano
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sagamihara
1–3–2
Parceiro Nagano
(6 last)
- Sagamihara2-1Parceiro Nagano
- Parceiro Nagano1-1Sagamihara
- Sagamihara1-1Parceiro Nagano
- Parceiro Nagano1-1Sagamihara
- Parceiro Nagano1-0Sagamihara
- Sagamihara0-1Parceiro Nagano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sagamihara 1511 · Parceiro Nagano 1428
| Sagamihara | Draw | Parceiro Nagano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagamihara (rating 1511 vs 1428).
- H2H favours Parceiro Nagano: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sagamihara | Parceiro Nagano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.4 | 1.7 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 1.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagamihara 1–3–2 Parceiro Nagano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/25 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 03/05/25 Japan J3-League | Parceiro Nagano | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
| 31/08/24 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 09/03/24 Japan J3-League | Parceiro Nagano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sagamihara |
| 29/07/23 Japan J3-League | Parceiro Nagano | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
| 15/04/23 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Gifu | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Kagoshima United | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Sagamihara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | Gainare Tottori | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Osaka | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Parceiro Nagano | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Reilac Shiga | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Tochigi SC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | FC Ryukyu | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 13 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Nara Club | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 4 |
| 15 | Kochi United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Y FC | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 18 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Thespa Gunma | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 20 | Fukushima Utd | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sagamihara | Parceiro Nagano |
|---|---|---|
| Thespa Gunma | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Tochigi City | 0-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Azul Claro Numazu | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Kochi United | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Parceiro Nagano (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sagamihara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 16/11 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 09/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/11 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 26/10 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Parceiro Nagano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 29/11 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 23/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 10/11 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 02/11 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/10 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sagamihara win (50%). Probabilities: Sagamihara 50%, draw 27%, Parceiro Nagano 23%.
How many goals are expected in Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano?
The model expects 2.65 goals (Sagamihara 1.62 · Parceiro Nagano 1.03), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.