Football · Japan J3-League · 03/10, 10:00
Prediction: Sagamihara vs FC Osaka
Team pages: Sagamihara · FC Osaka
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
Sagamihara1.43
FC Osaka1.48
1X2
Sagamihara
Draw
FC Osaka
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Sagamihara
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
FC Osaka
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sagamihara
2–1–3
FC Osaka
(6 last)
- FC Osaka0-2Sagamihara
- Sagamihara1-2FC Osaka
- FC Osaka1-0Sagamihara
- Sagamihara0-0FC Osaka
- Sagamihara5-0FC Osaka
- FC Osaka1-0Sagamihara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sagamihara 1485 · FC Osaka 1573
| Sagamihara | Draw | FC Osaka | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Osaka (rating 1485 vs 1573).
- H2H favours FC Osaka: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sagamihara | FC Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.7 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 7.4 | 2.5 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sagamihara 2–1–3 FC Osaka
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/25 Japan J3-League | FC Osaka | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
| 18/05/25 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 1-2 HT 0-0 | FC Osaka |
| 15/11/24 Japan J3-League | FC Osaka | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
| 03/05/24 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Osaka |
| 12/11/23 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 5-0 HT 0-0 | FC Osaka |
| 09/07/23 Japan J3-League | FC Osaka | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sagamihara |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Osaka | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Nara Club | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Roasso Kumamoto | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| 9 | Reilac Shiga | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Y FC | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 7 |
| 17 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespa Gunma | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 6 |
| 19 | Kochi United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 5 |
| 20 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sagamihara | FC Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Matsumoto Y FC | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Parceiro Nagano | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| FC Ryukyu | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Zweigen Kanazawa | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Osaka (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sagamihara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 20/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 1 | L |
FC Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 14/09 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 16/08 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/12 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 07/12 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sagamihara vs FC Osaka?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Osaka win (38%). Probabilities: Sagamihara 35%, draw 27%, FC Osaka 38%.
How many goals are expected in Sagamihara vs FC Osaka?
The model expects 2.91 goals (Sagamihara 1.43 · FC Osaka 1.48), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sagamihara vs FC Osaka?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.