Football · Japan J3-League · 11/10, 06:00
Prediction: Matsumoto Y FC vs Kagoshima United
Team pages: Matsumoto Y FC · Kagoshima United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Matsumoto Y FC1.24
Kagoshima United1.52
1X2
Matsumoto Y FC
Draw
Kagoshima United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Matsumoto Y FC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Kagoshima United
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Matsumoto Y FC
1–1–4
Kagoshima United
(6 last)
- Kagoshima United3-2Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC1-1Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United0-2Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC2-4Kagoshima United
- Kagoshima United4-2Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC1-2Kagoshima United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matsumoto Y FC 1483 · Kagoshima United 1565
| Matsumoto Y FC | Draw | Kagoshima United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 28% | 43% |
| Market | 29% | 29% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1483 vs 1565).
- H2H favours Kagoshima United: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Matsumoto Y FC | Kagoshima United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.1 / 7.3 | 2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matsumoto Y FC 1–1–4 Kagoshima United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/25 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 21/06/25 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Kagoshima United |
| 19/08/23 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 28/05/23 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 2-4 HT 2-1 | Kagoshima United |
| 14/08/22 Japan J3-League | Kagoshima United | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 26/03/22 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Kagoshima United |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Nara Club | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 20 |
| 4 | Sagamihara | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 18 |
| 5 | FC Osaka | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 14 |
| 8 | Roasso Kumamoto | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Reilac Shiga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| 11 | FC Gifu | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Gainare Tottori | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 13 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 15 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 10 |
| 16 | Thespa Gunma | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 9 |
| 17 | Matsumoto Y FC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 18 | Fukushima Utd | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 25 | 8 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 5 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Matsumoto Y FC | Kagoshima United |
|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Reilac Shiga | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Kagoshima United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matsumoto Y FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 29/11 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
Kagoshima United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 19/09 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 4-3 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/12 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matsumoto Y FC vs Kagoshima United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Kagoshima United win (42%). Probabilities: Matsumoto Y FC 29%, draw 28%, Kagoshima United 42%.
How many goals are expected in Matsumoto Y FC vs Kagoshima United?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Matsumoto Y FC 1.24 · Kagoshima United 1.52), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Matsumoto Y FC vs Kagoshima United?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.