Football · Japan J3-League · 03/10, 07:00
Prediction: Matsumoto Y FC vs Gainare Tottori
Team pages: Matsumoto Y FC · Gainare Tottori
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Matsumoto Y FC1.91
Gainare Tottori1.21
1X2
Matsumoto Y FC
Draw
Gainare Tottori
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Matsumoto Y FC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Gainare Tottori
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Matsumoto Y FC
2–2–2
Gainare Tottori
(6 last)
- Gainare Tottori0-0Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC1-0Gainare Tottori
- Matsumoto Y FC3-4Gainare Tottori
- Gainare Tottori0-4Matsumoto Y FC
- Gainare Tottori2-1Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC0-0Gainare Tottori
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matsumoto Y FC 1498 · Gainare Tottori 1521
| Matsumoto Y FC | Draw | Gainare Tottori | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Matsumoto Y FC | Gainare Tottori | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 7.1 | 1.8 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matsumoto Y FC 2–2–2 Gainare Tottori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 18/05/25 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Gainare Tottori |
| 20/10/24 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 3-4 HT 1-1 | Gainare Tottori |
| 08/06/24 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 05/08/23 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 02/04/23 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gainare Tottori |
Standings · Japan J3-League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Osaka | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | Nara Club | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Gifu | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Roasso Kumamoto | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 12 |
| 9 | Reilac Shiga | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| 10 | FC Ryukyu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 10 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Tochigi SC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 9 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Y FC | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 7 |
| 17 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 7 |
| 18 | Thespa Gunma | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 6 |
| 19 | Kochi United | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 5 |
| 20 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Matsumoto Y FC | Gainare Tottori |
|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| FC Osaka | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1-1 D | 4-2 W |
| Ehime FC | 2-2 D | 0-4 L |
| Reilac Shiga | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matsumoto Y FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 29/11 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/11 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-2 | 2-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
Gainare Tottori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 29/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 23/11 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matsumoto Y FC vs Gainare Tottori?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Matsumoto Y FC win (52%). Probabilities: Matsumoto Y FC 52%, draw 25%, Gainare Tottori 23%.
How many goals are expected in Matsumoto Y FC vs Gainare Tottori?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Matsumoto Y FC 1.91 · Gainare Tottori 1.21), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Matsumoto Y FC vs Gainare Tottori?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.