Football · Japan J3-League · 03/10, 07:00

Prediction: Parceiro Nagano vs Nara Club

Team pages: Parceiro Nagano · Nara Club

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Parceiro Nagano1.47

Nara Club1.66

1X2

33% 26% 41%

Parceiro Nagano Draw Nara Club

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Parceiro Nagano 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLDDWL

Nara Club 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Parceiro Nagano 1–2–3 Nara Club (6 last)

Nara Club2-0Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano1-0Nara Club
Parceiro Nagano1-1Nara Club
Nara Club1-1Parceiro Nagano
Nara Club2-0Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano0-3Nara Club

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parceiro Nagano 1463 · Nara Club 1511

	Parceiro Nagano	Draw	Nara Club
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nara Club (rating 1463 vs 1511).
H2H favours Nara Club: 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parceiro Nagano	Nara Club
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +22’	2.75	3.40	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parceiro Nagano 1–2–3 Nara Club

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/25 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	2-0 HT 1-0	Parceiro Nagano
31/05/25 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-0 HT 1-0	Nara Club
14/09/24 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-1 HT 0-1	Nara Club
03/03/24 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	1-1 HT 0-0	Parceiro Nagano
26/08/23 Japan J3-League	Nara Club	2-0 HT 1-0	Parceiro Nagano
19/03/23 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	0-3 HT 0-1	Nara Club

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	8	6	2	0	16	8	20
2	Ehime FC	8	5	2	1	19	9	17
3	FC Osaka	8	4	4	0	17	7	16
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
5	Nara Club	8	4	2	2	18	16	14
6	FC Gifu	8	4	1	3	19	8	13
7	Roasso Kumamoto	8	3	4	1	7	4	13
8	Sagamihara	8	3	3	2	14	10	12
9	Reilac Shiga	8	4	0	4	14	14	12
10	FC Ryukyu	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	3	2	3	11	12	11
12	Zweigen Kanazawa	8	3	1	4	14	13	10
13	Gainare Tottori	8	3	1	4	11	18	10
14	Tochigi SC	8	2	3	3	11	14	9
15	Matsumoto Y FC	8	1	5	2	8	10	8
16	Fukushima Utd	8	2	1	5	16	20	7
17	Giravanz Kitakyushu	8	1	4	3	10	16	7
18	Thespa Gunma	8	2	0	6	7	15	6
19	Kochi United	8	1	2	5	3	18	5
20	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	1	1	6	10	17	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parceiro Nagano	Nara Club
Fukushima Utd	3-4 L	2-2 D
FC Gifu	1-0 W	2-1 W
Sagamihara	1-1 D	2-1 W
Roasso Kumamoto	1-0 W	2-2 D
Renofa Yamaguchi	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nara Club (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parceiro Nagano

LLWLWLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	3-4	5	1	L
20/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
05/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
16/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	2-4	4	2	L
08/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
29/11	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-4	3	0	L
23/11	Tochigi City Japan J3-League	0-0	0-3	6	4	L

Nara Club

WLLLWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
19/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	7	2	W
12/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
06/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	2	2	D
22/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	1-1	1-3	1	4	L
09/08	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-3	1-4	3	0	L
29/11	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
24/11	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	2-0	2-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parceiro Nagano vs Nara Club?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nara Club win (41%). Probabilities: Parceiro Nagano 33%, draw 26%, Nara Club 41%.

How many goals are expected in Parceiro Nagano vs Nara Club?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Parceiro Nagano 1.47 · Nara Club 1.66), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Parceiro Nagano vs Nara Club?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.