Football · Japan J3-League · 04/10, 11:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs Fukushima Utd

Team pages: Kagoshima United · Fukushima Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

Kagoshima United2.52

Fukushima Utd1.28

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Kagoshima United Draw Fukushima Utd

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWWWD

Fukushima Utd 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 4–2–0 Fukushima Utd (6 last)

Fukushima Utd2-2Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United5-0Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd0-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United3-1Fukushima Utd
Fukushima Utd1-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United2-1Fukushima Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1567 · Fukushima Utd 1478

	Kagoshima United	Draw	Fukushima Utd
Our model	64%	19%	17%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kagoshima United (rating 1567 vs 1478).
H2H favours Kagoshima United: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	Fukushima Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	2.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	1.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +6’	1.42	4.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 4–2–0 Fukushima Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/25 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	2-2 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United
17/05/25 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	5-0 HT 0-0	Fukushima Utd
29/10/23 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Kagoshima United
09/07/23 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	3-1 HT 1-1	Fukushima Utd
23/10/22 Japan J3-League	Fukushima Utd	1-1 HT 1-1	Kagoshima United
09/07/22 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	2-1 HT 1-1	Fukushima Utd

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	8	6	2	0	16	8	20
2	Ehime FC	8	5	2	1	19	9	17
3	FC Osaka	8	4	4	0	17	7	16
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	8	4	2	2	11	7	14
5	Nara Club	8	4	2	2	18	16	14
6	FC Gifu	8	4	1	3	19	8	13
7	Roasso Kumamoto	8	3	4	1	7	4	13
8	Sagamihara	8	3	3	2	14	10	12
9	Reilac Shiga	8	4	0	4	14	14	12
10	FC Ryukyu	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
11	Parceiro Nagano	8	3	2	3	11	12	11
12	Zweigen Kanazawa	8	3	1	4	14	13	10
13	Gainare Tottori	8	3	1	4	11	18	10
14	Tochigi SC	8	2	3	3	11	14	9
15	Matsumoto Y FC	8	1	5	2	8	10	8
16	Fukushima Utd	8	2	1	5	16	20	7
17	Giravanz Kitakyushu	8	1	4	3	10	16	7
18	Thespa Gunma	8	2	0	6	7	15	6
19	Kochi United	8	1	2	5	3	18	5
20	Kamatamare Sanuki	8	1	1	6	10	17	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kagoshima United	Fukushima Utd
Kamatamare Sanuki	4-3 W	1-2 L
Nara Club	3-1 W	2-2 D
Thespa Gunma	1-0 W	3-1 W
Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0-2 L	2-1 W
Zweigen Kanazawa	2-4 L	3-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fukushima Utd (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kagoshima United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
05/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
29/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-1	4-3	3	1	W
22/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
16/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
08/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
07/12	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
29/11	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-3	2-4	6	4	L

Fukushima Utd

WWLLLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-1	4-3	6	1	W
18/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	7	1	L
12/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
05/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
29/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	6	2	D
22/08	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	8	2	L
15/08	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	2-0	3-4	3	3	L
09/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	9	1	L
29/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
23/11	Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League	1-0	3-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs Fukushima Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (63%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 63%, draw 20%, Fukushima Utd 17%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs Fukushima Utd?

The model expects 3.81 goals (Kagoshima United 2.52 · Fukushima Utd 1.28), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs Fukushima Utd?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.