Football · Japan J3-League · 18/10, 08:00

Prediction: Parceiro Nagano vs Matsumoto Y FC

Team pages: Parceiro Nagano · Matsumoto Y FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Parceiro Nagano1.15

Matsumoto Y FC1.35

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Parceiro Nagano Draw Matsumoto Y FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Parceiro Nagano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWLLW

Matsumoto Y FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDDLDWLW

Head-to-head

Parceiro Nagano 2–3–1 Matsumoto Y FC (6 last)

Matsumoto Y FC0-1Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano0-5Matsumoto Y FC
Parceiro Nagano1-0Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC2-2Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano1-1Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC1-1Parceiro Nagano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parceiro Nagano 1479 · Matsumoto Y FC 1485

	Parceiro Nagano	Draw	Matsumoto Y FC
Our model	30%	29%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parceiro Nagano: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parceiro Nagano	Matsumoto Y FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	3.9 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.06 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.28
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +21’	2.88	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +1’	2.88	3.33	2.25
15:34 +245’	3.06▲	3.28▼	2.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parceiro Nagano 2–3–1 Matsumoto Y FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Matsumoto Y FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Parceiro Nagano
14/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Parceiro Nagano	0-5 HT 0-4	Matsumoto Y FC
19/07/25 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-0 HT 1-0	Matsumoto Y FC
14/05/25 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Parceiro Nagano
05/10/24 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-1 HT 1-1	Matsumoto Y FC
29/06/24 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Parceiro Nagano

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	6	2	2	14	7	20
5	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
6	Sagamihara	10	5	3	2	18	12	18
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	3	5	2	7	6	14
10	Reilac Shiga	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	4	2	4	14	14	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	10	2	5	3	9	11	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	1	2	7	12	20	5
20	Kochi United	10	1	2	7	4	23	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parceiro Nagano	Matsumoto Y FC
Kochi United	3-1 W	0-0 D
Tochigi SC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Sagamihara	1-1 D	1-3 L
Roasso Kumamoto	1-0 W	0-0 D
FC Osaka	2-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Parceiro Nagano (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parceiro Nagano

WLWLDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
03/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	3-4	5	1	L
20/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
05/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
16/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	2-4	4	2	L
08/08	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	3	1	W

Matsumoto Y FC

DLDDDLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
26/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
18/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	11	5	L
05/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
30/08	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
22/08	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
16/08	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-3	6	3	L
08/08	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parceiro Nagano vs Matsumoto Y FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Matsumoto Y FC win (40%). Probabilities: Parceiro Nagano 31%, draw 29%, Matsumoto Y FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Parceiro Nagano vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Parceiro Nagano 1.15 · Matsumoto Y FC 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Parceiro Nagano vs Matsumoto Y FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.