Football · Japan J3-League · 21/10, 06:00

Prediction: Parceiro Nagano vs FC Ryukyu

Team pages: Parceiro Nagano · FC Ryukyu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Parceiro Nagano1.39

FC Ryukyu1.42

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Parceiro Nagano Draw FC Ryukyu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Parceiro Nagano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDWLLWW

FC Ryukyu 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLDLLW

Head-to-head

Parceiro Nagano 0–3–3 FC Ryukyu (6 last)

FC Ryukyu2-0Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano1-1FC Ryukyu
Parceiro Nagano1-1FC Ryukyu
FC Ryukyu4-3Parceiro Nagano
FC Ryukyu2-2Parceiro Nagano
Parceiro Nagano1-2FC Ryukyu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parceiro Nagano 1490 · FC Ryukyu 1474

	Parceiro Nagano	Draw	FC Ryukyu
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Ryukyu: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parceiro Nagano	FC Ryukyu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.63 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.32
2	2.50 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.44

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:01 +1’	2.40	3.30	2.50
10:00 +3’	2.45▲	3.30	2.45▼
10:58 +6’	2.50▲	3.30	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:28 +35’	2.56	3.32	2.50
10:28 +36’	2.63▲	3.32	2.44▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parceiro Nagano 0–3–3 FC Ryukyu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/25 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	2-0 HT 2-0	Parceiro Nagano
13/04/25 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Ryukyu
19/10/24 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Ryukyu
14/04/24 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	4-3 HT 1-0	Parceiro Nagano
30/09/23 Japan J3-League	FC Ryukyu	2-2 HT 0-0	Parceiro Nagano
11/06/23 Japan J3-League	Parceiro Nagano	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Ryukyu

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	16	7	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
11	Reilac Shiga	11	4	2	5	16	18	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	11	2	5	4	10	13	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	12	23	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	4	25	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parceiro Nagano	FC Ryukyu
Tochigi SC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sagamihara	1-1 D	2-1 W
Thespa Gunma	1-2 L	1-2 L
FC Osaka	2-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ryukyu (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parceiro Nagano

LWLDDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
10/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	3-1	4	1	W
03/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	8	1	L
26/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	3-4	5	1	L
20/09	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
05/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
30/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
22/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
16/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	2-4	4	2	L

FC Ryukyu

DWLWWLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
10/10	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	1	0	L
03/10	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
26/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
20/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
13/09	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
09/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
05/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
29/08	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	2-0	2-1	8	2	W
22/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-0	2-2	8	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parceiro Nagano vs FC Ryukyu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Ryukyu win (37%). Probabilities: Parceiro Nagano 36%, draw 27%, FC Ryukyu 37%.

How many goals are expected in Parceiro Nagano vs FC Ryukyu?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Parceiro Nagano 1.39 · FC Ryukyu 1.42), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Parceiro Nagano vs FC Ryukyu?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.