Football · Japan J3-League · 21/10, 07:00

Prediction: Tochigi SC vs Reilac Shiga

Team pages: Tochigi SC · Reilac Shiga

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Tochigi SC1.41

Reilac Shiga1.06

1X2

44% 28% 28%

Tochigi SC Draw Reilac Shiga

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tochigi SC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLDLL

Reilac Shiga 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLDDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tochigi SC 1426 · Reilac Shiga 1468

	Tochigi SC	Draw	Reilac Shiga
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reilac Shiga (rating 1426 vs 1468).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tochigi SC	Reilac Shiga
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	3.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.02
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.39
2	3.40 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.32 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:52 +10’	1.95	3.25	3.40
09:58 +5’	2.00▲	3.30▲	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:11 +54’	2.02	3.39	3.32

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	16	7	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
11	Reilac Shiga	11	4	2	5	16	18	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	11	2	5	4	10	13	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	12	23	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	4	25	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tochigi SC	Reilac Shiga
FC Ryukyu	0-1 L	3-0 W
Kamatamare Sanuki	0-0 D	3-0 W
Matsumoto Y FC	1-2 L	3-2 W
Kagoshima United	1-3 L	1-2 L
Roasso Kumamoto	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Reilac Shiga (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tochigi SC

DDLWDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
11/10	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
26/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
19/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-2	1-3	5	4	L
13/09	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
05/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
22/08	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
15/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Reilac Shiga

WWLWLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	8	4	L
10/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	5	1	D
02/10	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
26/09	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	13	2	L
20/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-0	3-0	8	1	W
13/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
05/09	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
30/08	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	10	1	L
22/08	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	3-0	3-2	1	3	W
16/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-1	3-2	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tochigi SC vs Reilac Shiga?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tochigi SC win (44%). Probabilities: Tochigi SC 44%, draw 28%, Reilac Shiga 28%.

How many goals are expected in Tochigi SC vs Reilac Shiga?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Tochigi SC 1.41 · Reilac Shiga 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tochigi SC vs Reilac Shiga?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.