Football · Japan J3-League · 18/10, 07:00

Prediction: Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kochi United

Team pages: Renofa Yamaguchi · Kochi United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Renofa Yamaguchi1.74

Kochi United0.92

1X2

56% 24% 19%

Renofa Yamaguchi Draw Kochi United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Renofa Yamaguchi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Kochi United 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Renofa Yamaguchi 0–1–0 Kochi United (1 last)

Kochi United2-2Renofa Yamaguchi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Renofa Yamaguchi 1545 · Kochi United 1389

	Renofa Yamaguchi	Draw	Kochi United
Our model	56%	26%	19%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Renofa Yamaguchi (rating 1545 vs 1389).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Renofa Yamaguchi	Kochi United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.90

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.63
X	4.10 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	5.50 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.69 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +15’	1.45	4.10	5.50
19:32 +5’	1.48▲	4.10	5.25▼
21:10 +4’	1.57▲	3.90▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:00 +37’	1.47	4.18	5.87
21:07 +7’	1.63▲	3.78▼	4.69▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Renofa Yamaguchi 0–1–0 Kochi United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Kochi United	2-2 HT 0-2	Renofa Yamaguchi

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	10	6	2	2	14	7	20
5	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
6	Sagamihara	10	5	3	2	18	12	18
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
9	Roasso Kumamoto	10	3	5	2	7	6	14
10	Reilac Shiga	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
11	Parceiro Nagano	10	4	2	4	14	14	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	10	2	5	3	9	11	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	10	1	2	7	12	20	5
20	Kochi United	10	1	2	7	4	23	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Renofa Yamaguchi	Kochi United
Tochigi SC	1-0 W	0-2 L
FC Gifu	2-0 W	0-7 L
Zweigen Kanazawa	2-1 W	1-1 D
Thespa Gunma	2-0 W	0-1 L
FC Osaka	0-0 D	0-4 L
Parceiro Nagano	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Renofa Yamaguchi (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Renofa Yamaguchi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
03/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
26/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	2-2	11	2	D
20/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
12/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
05/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
30/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
22/08	Nara Club Japan J3-League	1-1	1-3	5	3	L
15/08	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
08/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L

Kochi United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-0	1-3	3	1	L
03/10	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
26/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-1	0-4	2	2	L
19/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
13/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	9	1	L
30/08	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
23/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
15/08	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-3	0-7	4	4	L
08/08	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kochi United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Renofa Yamaguchi win (56%). Probabilities: Renofa Yamaguchi 56%, draw 24%, Kochi United 19%.

How many goals are expected in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kochi United?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Renofa Yamaguchi 1.74 · Kochi United 0.92), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Kochi United?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.