Football · Japan J3-League · 21/10, 12:00

Prediction: Matsumoto Y FC vs Thespa Gunma

Team pages: Matsumoto Y FC · Thespa Gunma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Matsumoto Y FC1.87

Thespa Gunma1.26

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Matsumoto Y FC Draw Thespa Gunma

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Matsumoto Y FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDLDWLWL

Thespa Gunma 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWLLWD

Head-to-head

Matsumoto Y FC 2–4 Thespa Gunma (6 last)

Thespa Gunma6-2Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC1-3Thespa Gunma
Thespa Gunma1-0Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC1-0Thespa Gunma
Thespa Gunma1-0Matsumoto Y FC
Matsumoto Y FC2-0Thespa Gunma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Matsumoto Y FC 1466 · Thespa Gunma 1445

	Matsumoto Y FC	Draw	Thespa Gunma
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Thespa Gunma: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Matsumoto Y FC	Thespa Gunma
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.6	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	1.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:50 +12’	1.80	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Matsumoto Y FC 2–0–4 Thespa Gunma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/11/25 Japan J3-League	Thespa Gunma	6-2 HT 2-2	Matsumoto Y FC
05/07/25 Japan J3-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Thespa Gunma
30/10/21 Japan J2-League	Thespa Gunma	1-0 HT 1-0	Matsumoto Y FC
25/04/21 Japan J2-League	Matsumoto Y FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Thespa Gunma
02/12/20 Japan J2-League	Thespa Gunma	1-0 HT 0-0	Matsumoto Y FC
19/07/20 Japan J2-League	Matsumoto Y FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Thespa Gunma

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	11	8	2	1	23	13	26
2	Ehime FC	11	7	2	2	26	14	23
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	11	7	2	2	16	7	23
4	Nara Club	11	7	2	2	22	16	23
5	Sagamihara	11	6	3	2	20	12	21
6	FC Gifu	11	6	1	4	21	10	19
7	FC Osaka	11	4	5	2	19	12	17
8	Roasso Kumamoto	11	4	5	2	10	6	17
9	Parceiro Nagano	11	5	2	4	16	15	17
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	11	4	2	5	17	15	14
11	Reilac Shiga	11	4	2	5	16	18	14
12	FC Ryukyu	11	4	2	5	12	14	14
13	Gainare Tottori	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
14	Giravanz Kitakyushu	11	3	4	4	15	19	13
15	Matsumoto Y FC	11	2	5	4	10	13	11
16	Tochigi SC	11	2	4	5	11	16	10
17	Thespa Gunma	11	3	1	7	11	20	10
18	Fukushima Utd	11	2	2	7	20	26	8
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	11	1	2	8	12	23	5
20	Kochi United	11	1	2	8	4	25	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Matsumoto Y FC	Thespa Gunma
Parceiro Nagano	1-2 L	2-1 W
Gainare Tottori	0-1 L	1-1 D
Roasso Kumamoto	0-0 D	0-1 L
Sagamihara	1-3 L	1-4 L
Ehime FC	2-2 D	1-3 L
Reilac Shiga	2-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Matsumoto Y FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Matsumoto Y FC

LDDDLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
11/10	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
03/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
26/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
18/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
13/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	11	5	L
05/09	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
30/08	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
22/08	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
16/08	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-3	6	3	L

Thespa Gunma

LLWLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
10/10	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
03/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-0	1-3	7	1	L
26/09	Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
19/09	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
12/09	Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
05/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
30/08	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-3	2-3	5	3	L
15/08	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	1-4	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Matsumoto Y FC vs Thespa Gunma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Matsumoto Y FC win (50%). Probabilities: Matsumoto Y FC 50%, draw 25%, Thespa Gunma 25%.

How many goals are expected in Matsumoto Y FC vs Thespa Gunma?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Matsumoto Y FC 1.87 · Thespa Gunma 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Matsumoto Y FC vs Thespa Gunma?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.