Football · Japan J3-League · 31/10, 10:00

Prediction: Kagoshima United vs Roasso Kumamoto

Team pages: Kagoshima United · Roasso Kumamoto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Kagoshima United1.58

Roasso Kumamoto0.98

1X2

51% 27% 23%

Kagoshima United Draw Roasso Kumamoto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Kagoshima United 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Roasso Kumamoto 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kagoshima United 3–2–1 Roasso Kumamoto (6 last)

Kagoshima United2-1Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto0-1Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United0-2Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto2-2Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United1-0Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto2-2Kagoshima United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kagoshima United 1555 · Roasso Kumamoto 1535

	Kagoshima United	Draw	Roasso Kumamoto
Our model	50%	28%	22%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kagoshima United: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kagoshima United	Roasso Kumamoto
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
09:04 +5’	1.80	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:19 +56’	1.88	3.43	3.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kagoshima United 3–2–1 Roasso Kumamoto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Kagoshima United	2-1 HT 0-0	Roasso Kumamoto
29/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Roasso Kumamoto	0-1 HT 0-0	Kagoshima United
15/09/24 Japan J2-League	Kagoshima United	0-2 HT 0-1	Roasso Kumamoto
03/05/24 Japan J2-League	Roasso Kumamoto	2-2 HT 1-0	Kagoshima United
31/10/21 Japan J3-League	Kagoshima United	1-0 HT 0-0	Roasso Kumamoto
20/03/21 Japan J3-League	Roasso Kumamoto	2-2 HT 1-0	Kagoshima United

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	27	16	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	30	19	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	19	9	26
4	FC Osaka	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	15	7	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	23	21	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	21	14	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	23	19	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	17	19	17
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	13	23	15
14	Fukushima Utd	13	4	2	7	26	29	14
15	Matsumoto Y FC	13	3	5	5	12	15	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	12	16	14
17	Reilac Shiga	13	4	2	7	17	24	14
18	Thespa Gunma	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	15	25	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	5	28	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kagoshima United	Roasso Kumamoto
Kochi United	3-1 W	2-0 W
Ehime FC	4-2 W	0-2 L
Matsumoto Y FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Fukushima Utd	3-2 W	2-1 W
Reilac Shiga	2-1 W	0-0 D
Kamatamare Sanuki	4-3 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kagoshima United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
21/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	4	6	W
17/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	2-0	4-2	5	0	W
11/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
04/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
26/09	Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
19/09	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
13/09	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
05/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
29/08	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	0-1	4-3	3	1	W

Roasso Kumamoto

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
21/10	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	0-0	3-0	2	2	W
18/10	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League	1-0	3-0	9	1	W
11/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
02/10	Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
26/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/09	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
12/09	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
06/09	Nara Club Japan J3-League	2-1	2-2	7	3	D
30/08	Kochi United Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kagoshima United vs Roasso Kumamoto?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kagoshima United win (51%). Probabilities: Kagoshima United 51%, draw 27%, Roasso Kumamoto 23%.

How many goals are expected in Kagoshima United vs Roasso Kumamoto?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Kagoshima United 1.58 · Roasso Kumamoto 0.98), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kagoshima United vs Roasso Kumamoto?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.