Football · Japan J3-League · 31/10, 07:05

Prediction: Renofa Yamaguchi vs Giravanz Kitakyushu

Team pages: Renofa Yamaguchi · Giravanz Kitakyushu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Renofa Yamaguchi1.88

Giravanz Kitakyushu0.99

1X2

57% 24% 19%

Renofa Yamaguchi Draw Giravanz Kitakyushu

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Renofa Yamaguchi 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWLW

Giravanz Kitakyushu 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Renofa Yamaguchi 1–2–3 Giravanz Kitakyushu (6 last)

Giravanz Kitakyushu2-2Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi0-1Giravanz Kitakyushu
Renofa Yamaguchi0-1Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu0-0Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi4-1Giravanz Kitakyushu
Giravanz Kitakyushu2-0Renofa Yamaguchi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Renofa Yamaguchi 1556 · Giravanz Kitakyushu 1485

	Renofa Yamaguchi	Draw	Giravanz Kitakyushu
Our model	57%	24%	19%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Renofa Yamaguchi (rating 1556 vs 1485).
H2H favours Giravanz Kitakyushu: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Renofa Yamaguchi	Giravanz Kitakyushu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
06:56 +13’	1.57	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Renofa Yamaguchi 1–2–3 Giravanz Kitakyushu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	2-2 HT 1-2	Renofa Yamaguchi
22/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Renofa Yamaguchi	0-1 HT 0-0	Giravanz Kitakyushu
13/11/21 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	0-1 HT 0-0	Giravanz Kitakyushu
21/04/21 Japan J2-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	0-0 HT 0-0	Renofa Yamaguchi
06/12/20 Japan J2-League	Renofa Yamaguchi	4-1 HT 2-1	Giravanz Kitakyushu
25/07/20 Japan J2-League	Giravanz Kitakyushu	2-0 HT 1-0	Renofa Yamaguchi

Standings · Japan J3-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kagoshima United	13	9	2	2	27	16	29
2	Ehime FC	13	8	2	3	30	19	26
3	Renofa Yamaguchi	13	8	2	3	19	9	26
4	FC Osaka	13	6	5	2	23	13	23
5	Roasso Kumamoto	13	6	5	2	15	7	23
6	Nara Club	13	7	2	4	23	21	23
7	FC Gifu	13	7	1	5	24	13	22
8	Sagamihara	13	6	4	3	21	14	22
9	FC Ryukyu	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	Zweigen Kanazawa	13	5	2	6	23	19	17
11	Parceiro Nagano	13	5	2	6	17	19	17
12	Giravanz Kitakyushu	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
13	Gainare Tottori	13	4	3	6	13	23	15
14	Fukushima Utd	13	4	2	7	26	29	14
15	Matsumoto Y FC	13	3	5	5	12	15	14
16	Tochigi SC	13	3	5	5	12	16	14
17	Reilac Shiga	13	4	2	7	17	24	14
18	Thespa Gunma	13	4	1	8	12	22	13
19	Kamatamare Sanuki	13	2	2	9	15	25	8
20	Kochi United	13	1	3	9	5	28	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Renofa Yamaguchi	Giravanz Kitakyushu
Ehime FC	1-2 L	2-4 L
Kochi United	2-0 W	2-0 W
Sagamihara	2-2 D	2-1 W
Gainare Tottori	3-0 W	2-4 L
FC Osaka	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Renofa Yamaguchi

DWWWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	0	2	W
21/10	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
18/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
11/10	Tochigi SC Japan J3-League	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
03/10	FC Gifu Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	1	3	W
26/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	0-2	2-2	11	2	D
20/09	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
12/09	Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
05/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
30/08	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Giravanz Kitakyushu

LLLWDWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League	1-0	3-1	11	2	W
21/10	Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League	0-0	1-2	0	3	L
17/10	FC Osaka Japan J3-League	1-0	3-1	3	2	W
10/10	Nara Club Japan J3-League	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
03/10	Kochi United Japan J3-League	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/09	Kagoshima United Japan J3-League	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
20/09	Sagamihara Japan J3-League	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
12/09	Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	11	1	L
09/09	FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
05/09	Ehime FC Japan J3-League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Giravanz Kitakyushu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Renofa Yamaguchi win (57%). Probabilities: Renofa Yamaguchi 57%, draw 24%, Giravanz Kitakyushu 19%.

How many goals are expected in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Giravanz Kitakyushu?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Renofa Yamaguchi 1.88 · Giravanz Kitakyushu 0.99), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Renofa Yamaguchi vs Giravanz Kitakyushu?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.